Quarterback Countdown- #7 Johnny Manziel- Texas A&M

He’s been the most exciting player to watch in college football for the last two years. He’s a Sportscenter regular for his plays on and off of the field. He’s got the height of slot receiver, hands the size of a defensive end and he plays with Micky Ward vs. Arturo Gatti caliber heart. He views turnovers as a necessary evil and pocket presence as luxury. He’s simultaneously astounding and confounding. He makes a habit of taking leaps forward only to take bounds back. He’s an ankle breaking, Heisman winning, rule violating, ticket selling machine in the flesh. Put more simply, he’s Johnny Football.

And then there’s that Johnny Manziel guy too…

This Johnny Manziel guy from what I can tell is a semi-competent pocket passer from Tyler, Texas. He’s a QB that flashes touch, above average arm strength and an ability to get the ball out of his hands relatively quickly at times. This Manziel character appears to be coachable even. The problem is that you never know how much Manziel you’re going to get before Johnny Football takes over. And once Johnny Football takes over there’s no way of knowing what he’s going to do.  From what I can tell Johnny football seems to appear whenever Manziel senses any sort of pressure whatsoever. Beyond that, modern science has been unable to explain what activates the transformation.

All jokes aside, I’m sure I've lost whatever sliver of credibility I might have had by ranking Johnny Football as my #7 quarterback. But before you completely write me off at least give me a chance to explain. Let’s start with the numbers.

Manziel played in 26 games in his two years as a starter for Texas A&M. During his 2 year career he threw for 7,820 yards with 63 TDs, 22 INTs with a 68.9% completion percentage while rushing for 2,169 yards and 30 TDs. in his final season at A&M he threw for 4,114 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs with a completion percentage of 69.9% while rushing for 759 yards and 9 TDs. Of my top ten quarterbacks Manziel ranked 2^nd in completion percentage and 3^rd in yards per completion for the 2013 season. Manziel was the only QB in my top 10 to finish in the top 3 in both of these categories. Ranking that high in both categories would indicate that Manziel is not only accuratein general but accurate throwing the ball down the field. All of this is impressive and only supports Manziel’s 1^st round aspirations. So why am I such a non-believer? Well…… it’s kind of a long story but I’ll do my best to keep it brief.

I was mostly joking with the idea that Johnny Manziel and Johnny Football are different people but when I watch the guy play I feel like there are two separate QBs that you have to evaluate. There’s the guy that shows up when the pressure is on and starts running in circles (very nice circles mid you) and then there’s the guy that makes throws from inside the pocket. Both do things well and not so well but I think in order to give an honest evaluation of Manziel you have to understand both sides. So with that in mind I’m going to go about this a little differently than usual. First I’ll highlight the strengths and weaknesses of his game outside of the pocket (AKA Johnny Football). Then I’ll walk you through what I think about the guy that plays from inside the pocket (AKA Johnny Manziel).

Johnny Football

Strengths:

Athleticism/Throwing on the Run- I don’t really need to say too much here. We've all seen what Johnny Football can do with his legs. And his ability to make throws on the run is equally as impressive. You've all probably seen most of these plays but just for fun let’s watch some of it again. Check out the video below.

Weaknesses:

Decision Making- Sometimes it’s passing up an easy throw for a first down and electing to run instead. Other times it’s was throwing the ball up to a group of WRs and DBs like they were playing a game of 500. And sometimes it’s getting called for intentional grounding instead of just taking a sack. But that bonehead play is always around the corner with Johnny Football. And in the words of Nobel Laureate poet Trinidad James, “Don’t believe me just watch” the video below.

Ball Security- I’d say that Manziel carries the ball like a loaf of bread but I’ve never known anyone to be that careless with a loaf of bread. The term “tuck it and run” doesn’t apply to Manziel because he doesn’t ever tuck the ball away. Part of the problem is that Manziel has huge hands especially for a guy his size. He’s overconfident in his ability to hold on to the ball and it shows. Combine this with his belief that he can make any throw and you’ve got a turnover machine in the making. This is definitely something that can be coached but it’s a habit that will give coaches and fans fits.

Johnny Manziel

Strengths:

Touch- Manziels’s biggest asset from inside the pocket is his touch. He’s shown the ability to drop passes over the top on deep balls as well as the ability to hang back shoulder throws up for his receivers just out of reach of the defensive backs or line backers covering them. Manziel’s ability to connect on deep balls is impressive because it’s something that even good pocket passers struggle with. Even Aaron Rodgers was criticized coming out of Cal for his inability to connect on deep passes. This is the one area as a pocket passer where Manziel is ahead of the game. Watch the video below to see the type of touch that Manziel possesses.

Weaknesses:

Reading Coverage/Staring Down Receivers- Quarterbacks go through a few stages of being able to read coverage. The first stage is being able to recognize a coverage post-snap once the defenders declare their intentions. The second stage is being able to identify a coverage pre-snap. And finally, after being able to diagnose a coverage pre-snap a quarterback has to learn to use his eyes to manipulate the coverage from the moment he gets to the line of scrimmage until the ball leaves his hands. Johnny Manziel struggles with the very first stage of this progression. In the video below you’ll see Manziel fail to diagnose coverage pre-snap, post snap in addition to seeing him stare down receivers from the time the ball is snapped.

Pocket Presence- Manziel, like several other quarterbacks in this draft class, has a tendency to sit at the top of the pocket instead of climbing it. Sitting at the top of the pocket is bad for a few reasons. First of all when QBs get their momentum moving forward it makes it easier to shift their weight forward and deliver strong throws. The second reason is that every yard, foot and inch closer to the line of scrimmage the QB is when he releases the ball reduces the distance that the ball has to travel. And when playing against NFL defensive backs that like to jump routes, QBs need to shorten that distance whenever possible. The final reason and probably the most important is that linemen expect their QB to step up into the pocket. The linemen don’t have the luxury of being able to glance back and check to see where their QB is. Tackles are taught to block inside out so when a QB sits at the top of the pocket and the tackles on either side expect him to step up, they may end up pushing a defensive end our outside linebacker right into him. If Manziel is going to be successful as a pocket passer then there will definitely have to be some coaching done in this area.

Bottom Line:

At the end of the day there are two questions that teams will need to answer about Manziel. The First question is whether or not Manziel can win consistently playing the way that he does currently? Can he play like Michael Vick did when he had early success in Atlanta? The second question is whether or not Manziel can be coached into playing like a traditional pocket passer? And if the developmental route for Manziel is a team’s plan is that worth a first round pick?

It’s clear to me that Manziel is at his best when he’s improvising. When he’s confined to the pocket Maziel looks down right average. He has average arm strength, above average touch and a below average cognitive abilities from within the pocket. And I don’t think that style of play is conducive to continued success as a quarterback in the NFL.

Draft Projection- 3^rd-4^th round. Honestly I think that a 3^rd round pick is too much. But my projection is irrelevant because Johnny Manziel’s hype machine has been hard at work for far too long. He’ll probably end up going in the top ten but I truly believe that if a team takes Manziel that early they will end up regretting it for years to come. He’ll win a few games early on while teams adjust to his strengths, but in the end they’ll figure out how to contain him and that will be the end of that.

The last thing I’ll say is that there should NEVER be this level of uncertainty surrounding a first round pick let alone a top 5 pick. If there’s a franchise that’s willing to risk an early pick on him then they’re truly meant to be together.

I’ll be back soon with QB #6.

Thanks again to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you do compiling video.

Quarterback Countdown- #9 Brett Smith - Wyoming

Brett Smith played in 35 games during his 3 seasons at the University of Wyoming.  He finished his career with 8,834 yards, 76 TDs, 28 INTs and a completion percentage of 61.9% while rushing for 1,529 yards and 20 TDs. In his final season at Wyoming Smith passed for 3,375 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs with a completion percentage of 62.7% while rushing for 571 yards and 4 TDs. In the table below (which is sorted by completion percentage) you can see that among my top 10 QBs, Smith ranked 9^th in completion percentage and 9^th in yards per completion.  The combination of a low completion percentage and low yards per completion average is worrisome but in a moment I’ll explain why it doesn't worry me with Smith as much as it does with my #10 QB Tom Savage.

Strengths:

Decision Making- What I like most about Brett Smith is his ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s able to do this for a few reasons. The first is that he does a good job of reading coverage before the ball is snapped. The second reason is that he has great anticipation. The third reason is that he has developed chemistry with his receivers which isn't something that all college QBs end up doing. It takes time for a QB to build chemistry with his receivers but it also takes dedication and the ability to communicate. All of these factors come into play in determining whether or not a QB gets the ball out quickly. Seeing the way that Smith routinely gets the ball out before his receivers make their breaks along with the fact that his receivers are ready for the ball gives me confidence that he will be able to build chemistry with receivers at the next level which is one of the most important aspects of being an NFL QB. The video below is a compilation of plays in which Smith shows his ability to get the ball out quickly.

Athleticism- What might be more impressive than Smith’s ability to get the ball out quickly is what he has the ability to do when there isn't anyone open immediately. People praise Johnny Manziel for his ability to make plays outside of the pocket and on the run and when I watch Brett Smith I see a lot of the same ability. Smith doesn’t possess the same level of agility as Manziel but he has similar top end speed and more importantly he understands when to use his athleticism. The video below should give you a feel for the type of plays Brett Smith can make with his feet.

Weaknesses:

Arm Strength/Deep Accuracy- Smith just flat out doesn't have the type of arm strength that starting quarterbacks in the NFL usually possess. I was only able to watch four of his games but during those games he was rarely asked to throw deep outs and comebacks. Part of that is probably because it isn't a big part of their offense but the bigger reason is that he can’t produce the velocity necessary to make those throws routinely.  And his lack of deep ball accuracy seems to be a product of the fact that he has  to really put everything into the ball and loses touch.

Mechanics- Smith has an inconsistent delivery that is different than most QBs.  It seems to change depending on the depth of the route. It’s more compact on shorter throws which allows him to get the ball out quickly. Coaches may try to change his throwing mechanics but I don’t think it’s necessary. The only reason I list it as a weakness is that I think he may be able to make some adjustments to add touch to his deep ball.

Overview- Brett Smith will not be a starting QB in the NFL. He does a few things really well unfortunately the one thing he really struggles with (arm strength) isn't something that he can really improve. That being said, I think he could have a very successful career as a backup. Smith’s ability to get the ball out quickly makes him a good fit for a lot of west coast offenses. Smith’s has the ability to establish chemistry quickly with receivers and that ability is crucial when you’re expected to come off of the bench and keep the offense from missing a beat. Smith’s ability to make plays with his legs will add a dimension to most offenses.  It’s fair to ask why I would rank Brett Smith ahead of Tom Savage if I consider Smith to be a career backup. The reason is that I feel Savage has a lower floor than Smith.  Savage may end up starting at some point but more than likely he’ll end up as a backup.

Draft Projection: 7^th Round - Undrafted

I’ll be back tomorrow with QB #8.

And thanks again to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for the work you do compiling prospect video.

Quarterback Countdown- #10 Tom Savage

Over the next two months I plan on ranking the top players at every position and I’ll back it up with as much video evidence as possible. And since QB is the most high profile position I thought I would get it out of the way first. So over the next 10 days I will be doing a countdown of who I consider to be the top 10 QBs in this draft class. But before I get to QB #10 (Tom Savage) I wanted to acknowledge the guys who fell just short of the top 10.

11. AJ McCarron- Alabama

12. Logan Thomas- Virginia Tech

13. Keith Wenning- Ball St.

14. Bryn Renner- North Carolina

15. Tajh Boyd- Clemson

Tom Savage began his college career at Rutgers where he played in 10 games as a freshman and threw for 14 TDs, 7 INTs and a completion percentage of 52.3%. Savage was inured as a sophomore and failed to earn his starting job back once he was healthy. After falling out of favor during his sophomore season Savage transferred to the University of Arizona. Arizona’s offensive scheme ended up being a bad fit so he transferred again, this time to the University of Pittsburgh. By rule, Savage was forced to sit out his junior season after transferring. As a senior Savage started 13 games and led the Panthers to a 7-6 record with 21TDs, 9 INTs with a completion percentage of 61.2% and a whopping 43 sacks. Savage finished his career with 5,690 yards, 37 TDs and 19 INTs with a 56.8% completion percentage and 92 sacks.

Savage’s stats are definitely not impressive when compared to the other top QB prospects in this class. Maybe his numbers would've been better if he had spent more time with the same coaches and receivers but it is what it is. The table below is filled with several metrics for the QBs that I consider to be the top 10 in this draft class. There are a few stats about Savage that really stick out to me. The first is that among my top 10 QBs he has the lowest TD/INT ratio. The second is that he had the lowest completion percentage paired with the second lowest yards per completion average. I could understand if he was sacrificing completion percentage for longer completions (Like Zach Mettenbereger) but a low completion percentage shouldn't be coupled with a low yards per completion percentage. The final stat that sticks out to me is that Savage took 43 sacks as a senior. It’s totally fine to wonder whether the offensive line is to blame but with nearly twice as many sacks as any other QB in my top ten you have to think he could have done more to get the ball out of his hands. All in all the numbers don’t look too great.

Top 10 QBs 2013
	COMP	ATT	Comp %	YDS	YDS/CMP	TD	INT	TD/INT	SCK
Teddy Bridgewater	303	427	71.0%	3970	13.1	31	4	7.75	23
Derek Carr	453	659	68.7%	5082	11.2	50	8	6.25	11
Jimmy Garoppolo	375	568	66.0%	5050	13.5	53	9	5.89	19
Aaron Murray	225	347	64.8%	3075	13.7	26	9	2.89	13
Johny Manziel	300	429	69.9%	4114	13.7	37	13	2.85	19
Blake Bortles	259	382	67.8%	3581	13.8	25	9	2.78	21
Zach Mettenbereger	192	296	64.9%	3082	16.1	22	8	2.75	21
Brett Smith	293	467	62.7%	3375	11.5	29	11	2.64	25
David Fales	312	487	64.1%	4189	13.4	33	13	2.54	19
Tom Savage	238	389	61.2%	2958	12.4	21	9	2.33	43
Average	227	342	66.3%	2960	13.0	25.2	7.2	3.52	16.5

Strengths:

After examining Savage’s stats compared to the other top QBs in this draft class it would be perfectly reasonable to wonder why I would have him ranked in the top 10. And in this case there are two very clear answers.

Size- Savage measured in at 6’4” and 228LBs at the scouting combine. His size combined with his strong arm make him hard to ignore. Although guys like Russell Wilson and Drew Brees have shown that small stature can be overcome at the QB position it’s still something that scouts seem to covet at the position.

Arm Strength- The reason teams are overlooking Savage’s lack of production is his arm strength. It’s impossible to miss it. The ball jumps off of his hands. He has the zip to throw the deep outs, comebacks, posts, and seam routes that are essential in most NFL schemes and that’s not something that you can say for all of the top prospects in this class. In the video below you can see Savage make most of the throws that I just mentioned.

Weaknesses:

Pocket Presence- Outside of his accuracy issues my biggest concern with Savage is that he has poor pocket presence. He’s made a habit of getting to the top of his drop and just sitting there. The guys who make it in the NFL understand the importance of climbing the pocket. Sitting at the top of the pocket is bad for a few reasons. First of all when QBs get their momentum moving forward makes it easier to shift their weight forward and make a strong throws. The second reason is that every yard, foot and inch closer to the line of scrimmage the QB is when he releases the ball reduces the distance that the ball has to travel. And when playing against NFL defensive backs that like to jump routes, QBs need to shorten that distance whenever possible. The final reason and probably the most important is that lineman expect their QB to step up into the pocket. The lineman don’t have the luxury of being able to glance back and check to see where their QB is. Tackles are taught to block inside out so when a QB sits at the top of the pocket and the tackles on either side expect him to step up, they may end up pushing a defensive end our outside linebacker right into him. This is exactly what happens on the first play in the video below. Savage makes his drop and sits at the top of the pocket instead of stepping up. The right tackle probably got blamed for the sack but the defensive end would have just gone flying by if Savage would've just stepped up into the pocket. The rest of the plays are more examples of Savage doing the exact same thing but with less dramatic results. I only highlighted a few plays but I would say that he fails to climb the pocket about 65-70% of the time.

Deep Ball accuracy- It’s obvious that accuracy as a whole is an issue for Savage but his struggles with connecting on deep passes is especially noticeable. It’s not just that he misses it’s that he misses different ways every time. One play it’s a bad overthrow and the next play the ball is woefully under-thrown. The video below shows the deep ball miscues from three different games.

Stares Down Receivers- A skill that QBs in the NFL have to develop is the ability to use their eyes to look off coverage. Savage has a tendency to stare down his receivers. It doesn't matter how strong of an arm you have if the defense knows where the ball is going before it’s released. The video below shows two examples of Savage staring down his receiver from the beginning of the play allowing the safety to get a jump on the route and make a play on the ball.  

What to Expect:

 Tom Savage has the size and arm strength to succeed as an NFL QB. He has experience taking snaps from under center which is becoming increasingly rare. He needs some coaching on pocket presence, using his eyes to control the defense and there are a few things about his footwork and setup that definitely need work. But given a couple years to learn a system and get the coaching he needs I could see Savage as a starter in the league or at least a solid backup. At this point there is no way that I would draft him if I was looking for a QB to start right away. That being said, I think as the draft gets closer teams will become more and more intrigued with his blend of size and arm strength and he will ultimately end up being drafted earlier than he should be (probably the third or fourth round).

That’s all for today. Tomorrow I’ll be back with QB #9.

A big thanks to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all the work you guys do compiling prospect video.

4 Late Round Rookies You Should Get to Know

My name is Deverell King. I live in Portland, Oregon where I was born and raised and I have absolutely no credentials as a football scout whatsoever. But I've been a fan of the game for as long as I can remember. And for about the last 5 years I've spent lot of my free time breaking down potential NFL players for fun. And I recently decided that if I'm going to keep spending so much time breaking things down for myself I might as well let someone know what I think. And that's about all you need to know about me. For the foreseeable future I'll spend most of my time here breaking down college and occasionally high school football players and giving my best estimation of what they'll amount to if they get a shot in the league.

But with the first Sunday of the NFL season only hours away I thought I'd start by talking about some guys that will be playing on Sundays this year. There are plenty of websites and bloggers out there with draft grades so i'm not going to get into all of that. Today I'm going to introduce you to four rookies selected in the later rounds of the draft that I think will make a big impact this year and going forward.

1. Bacarri Rambo - Safety - Washington Redskins (Round 6 Pick 23)

The first thing I should say is that i'm a Georgia Bulldogs fan. So call me a homer if you will and i'll completely understand but i'm still going to say what i have to say about this guy.

Much like the offensive line, safety is a position where success is usually measured by the amount of times that a player's name isn't called. Safeties are the last line of defense and there are guys that make careers on being that guy who just doesn't make the big mistake. But while there's a lot to be said for not allowing big plays from the offense, the safeties that you remember are the ones that make big plays of their own. Players like Ed Reed, Sean Taylor and Jarius Byrd. Rambo proved again and again during his college career that he's an impact player that excels at creating turnovers. In his 47 career appearances in college Rambo tallied 16 interceptions, six forced  fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and also scored three touchdowns.

The Redskins selected Rambo in the 6th round with the 191st pick in the draft making him the 17th safety selected. Most sixth round picks have to scratch and claw just to make the 53 man roster. Not only did Rambo make the roster, he's now the starting free safety for a secondary that could showed last season that they could use some reinforcements. The Redskins finished the 2012 regular season as the 30th ranked pass defense. 

So what should you expect to see from Bacarri Rambo as a rookie? Well, you'll see some mistakes that might result in big plays. But you'll definitely also see him force some turnovers and give good support in the run game. But I can say with confidence that by the end of the 2013 season (barring any injury) that Bacarri Rambo will be a household name. 

2. Quinton Patton - Wide Receiver - 49ers (Round 4 Pick 31)

Patton was an extremely productive college player. In two years at Louisana Tech Patton brought in 183 passes for 2,594 yards and 24 touchdowns. Some would argue that Patton's production should be handicapped since he played in Conference USA. But before you scoff at Patton's numbers you should look at his performances against a few schools in more notable conferences. In 2012 against Texas A&M Patton reeled in a whopping 21 catches for 233 yards and four touchdowns. Against Mississippi State in 2011 he caught 11 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. That same season he caught five passes for 67 yards and a touchdown against a solid TCU defense in the Poinsettia Bowl.

When I watch Quinton Patton I see Reggie Wayne. He's not overwhelmingly fast or large but he knows how to create separation and how to make a nice target for his quarterback. Patton's ability to get a clean release from the line of scrimmage is one skill that will give him a leg up over other rookie receivers and may catch some NFL cornerbacks by surprise. 

Look for Patton to take over Marlon Moore's role pretty quickly. Patton should quickly become one of Colin Kaepernick's favorite targets. Kaepernick to Patton is a combo that we should all get used to hearing.

3. Andre Ellington - Running Back - Cardinals (Round 6 Pick 19)

Andre Ellington sits 4th all-time on the Clemson career rushing list. In his time at Clemson Andre Ellington rushed for 3,404 with a 5.2 yards per carry average and 33 touchdowns. He also added 69 receptions for 605 yards and two touchdowns.

Ellington possesses elite speed and agility. The main knock on him coming out of Clemson was his size. Ellington measured in at 5'9" and 199 lbs at the NFL scouting combine. It's fair to question whether a player of his physical stature can handle the beating that any starting NFL running back has to take. And mAybe Ellington won't be a guy that can carry the ball 25 times every game. But how many backs like that are there left in the NFL? I see Ellington as a guy that could handle 15 carries per game with some passes sprinkled in. 

Currently Ellington is listed behind Rahard Mendenhall, Ryan Williams and Stepfan Taylor on the Cardinals depth Chart. But even though he's buried on the depth chart he is clearly the only back on that roster with any big play ability. Ellington has too much talent for the Cardinals to leave him on the bench for too long. Once Mendenhall dances his way into Bruce Arians' doghouse and Ryan Williams inevitably ends up on the injury report, it will be up to the pair of rookies to carry the load. And Ellington is just flat out more talented than Taylor. It may be late this year but Ellington WILL get a shot and when he does he won't disappoint. 

Jordan Mills – Tackle – Chicago Bears (Round 5 Pick 30)

The Chicago bears are loaded with talent on the offensive side of the ball. Jay Cutler has one of the most live arms in the league. Combine that with the Pass catching ability of Brandon Marshall and second year pro Alshon Jeffery and Tight End Martellus Bennett with the impact that a healthy Matt Forte can have and you’ve got what should be an elite NFL offense. The bears biggest problem is and has always been their complete inability to keep Jay Cutler off of his back.

Brandon Mills measured in at 6’5” 319 lbs at the nfl scouting combine. Mills’ balance in pass protection is very impressive. He doesn’t panic against good edge rushers and allow them to run him up the field and cut back inside. He stands his ground and lets the pass rusher try to beat him around the corner and gives them a good shove that sends them flying past the pocket. It’s the little things that Mills seems to excel at and it’s these little things that I think will allow him to excel.

When I watch Mills run block the thing that I notice first is that he has a feel not just for exactly where he needs to move the guy in front of him but also has a feel for what the running back behind him sees. He knows when to turn a guy and how far to turn him. He knows how long to hold a block before trying to get to the second level. And when he knows that all he needs to do is eliminate the guy in front of him…look out because the big guy can move. Mills is starting at right tackle and look for him to be the starter when the season ends.

Look for these guys to all make an impact this season, some earlier than others. In the coming weeks I plan to start getting into some current college players. Thanks for reading.