Quarterback Countdown- #4 Jimmy Garoppolo- Eastern Illinois

No player has ascended further up NFL draft boards this off-season than Jimmy Garoppolo. Despite his prolific stats this past season, most people considered Jimmy Garoppolo to be a 3rd-4th round talent. In the past few weeks I've seen him projected as high as the late first round. Garoppolo is an especially intriguing prospect because he attended such a small school. The football program at Eastern Illinois is probably most famous for producing Dallas Cowboys' Quarterback, Tony Romo. Naturally there have been quite a few comparisons made between the two. And there are definitely some similarities between the two passers. But before I get into that let's examine Garoppolo's collegiate performance.

Garoppolo played in 45 games during his 4 years at Eastern Illinois. During that time he passed for 13,156 yards, 118 TDs, 51 INTs and a 62.8% completion percentage. Garoppolo put up the best numbers of his career this past season as a senior. Garoppolo passed for 5,050 yards, 53 TDs, 9 INTs and a completion percentage of 66.0%. With a TD/INT ratio of nearly six to one, Garoppolo ranked 3rd among my top 10 quarterbacks in touchdown to interception ratio. But Garopppolo's statistical dominance comes with a caveat. Eastern Illinois is an FCS team, so Garopppolo didn't face the same caliber of opponent that the other top quarterbacks in this draft class faced during their careers. That being said, Garoppolo lead the FCS in passing yards as a senior. Regardless of the level of competition that Garoppolo faced, he made the best of it.

Strengths:

Reading Coverage/Using Eyes and Pump Fakes- The part of Garoppolo's game that impresses me the most is his ability to manipulate defensive backs and linebackers with his eyes and pump fakes. In fact, this is one of the similarities between Garoppolo and Tony Romo. Romo uses the pump fake more than any other QB in the NFL. But back to Garoppolo. At the collegiate level you don't see a lot of QBs use the pump fake because most quarterbacks have a hard enough time using their eyes to look off the defense. The way I like to judge a QB's ability to read/manipulate the defense is by answering a couple of questions. First, can the QB read the defense once the ball is snapped? Second, can a QB read the defense pre-snap? Third, can the QB use his eyes to manipulate the defense. And finally, does the QB use the pump fake to manipulate the defense? With Garoppolo it's easy for me to answer yes to every question. At this point in his career, Jimmy Garoppolo has already exhibited an elite ability to read and manipulate defenses. The video below is a compilation of plays in which Garoppolo displays this ability. Keep an eye on the reactions that linebackers and safeties have to his pump fakes. Also keep an eye on the position of the safeties once the ball is delivered.

Touch- Jimmy Garoppolo has repeatedly shown the ability to deliver passes with touch. He does a great job of putting just enough air on his deep passes to allow the receiver to run under the ball and catch it in stride. He also excels at dropping passes in between zone coverage. Watch the video below to see examples of the touch that i'm talking about.

Quick Release- Another similarity between Garoppolo and Romo is that they both have a very compact release. The ball stays high throughout the throwing motion which reduces both unnecessary movement and the amount of time that it takes the ball to get out of the hands. In addition to his compact throwing motion, Garoppolo's quick decision making helps get the ball out of his hands quickly. You can watch examples of this in the video below.

Weaknesses: 

Inexperienced Against Elite Competition- Garoppolo just hasn't played enough against top tier athletes to know how he'll handle the speed. Every QB making the transition from college to the pros has to adjust to the increased speed of the game.There will just just be a larger adjustment for Garoppolo than most.

Footwork- Out of the 180 throws that I watched Garoppolo make from the 2013 season, 166 (92.2%) of the snaps were taken from the shotgun. Garoppolo will have to learn to take snaps from under center and work on the footwork that comes with it. The other thing that Garoppolo will have to learn is to make post-snap reads while taking his drop. Like I said above, Garoppolo excels at reading the defense. But he has always read the defense from the shotgun. The change in perspective may take some time to adjust to. But there is no indication that Garoppolo should have trouble making the adjustment.

Overview:

Jimmy Garoppolo will continue to ascend draft board up until draft day. His ability to read and manipulate defenses is extremely developed for a college QB. The biggest question surrounding Garoppolo will continue to be whether or not he can continue to succeed against NFL caliber talent? I think that he will.

Draft Projection- Late 1st Round- Jimmy Garoppolo is a first round talent and team are beginning to realize that. I think that the Jaguars, Browns and Vikings re all candidates. The Vikings and Jaguars would have to either trade up from the second round or trade back from the first. The Browns are sitting in the perfect position to select Garoppolo if they are interested. Regardless of which team selects him, we should see Jimmy Garoppolo come off of the board in the late first round.

Thanks as always to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you do compiling prospect video.

I'll be back soon with QB #3.

Quarterback Countdown- #5 Zack Mettenberger- LSU

Zach Mettenberger measured in at 6'5" and 224 at the scouting combine. He's a big guy, with a bigger arm and a lot of potential. Before tearing his ACL and spraining his MCL against Arkansas, Mettenberger was considered by some to be a potential first round pick. He suffered the injury in late November. He wasn't able to have surgery on his ACL until early in January because doctors wanted to wait for his MCL to heal. So it's very surprising to hear that Mettenberger plans to throw for scouts on March 27th at LSUs Pro Day, not even 4 months after his surgery. In addition to being a testament to Mettenberger's work ethic, being ready to throw at this point  should give teams hope that he'll be ready to play sooner than later. With that in mind, let's talk about some numbers.

Zach Mettenberger started his college career with the Georgia Bulldogs. After some off the field issues as a Freshman he was kicked off of the team and had to go play junior college ball. After a year playing JUCO ball Mettenberger transferred to LSU. As a senior Mettenberger passed for 3,082 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs and a completion percentage of 64.9%. Of my top 10 QBs, Mettenberger ranked 6th in completion percentage and 1st in yards per completion during his senior season. Mettenburger's yards per completion average was 16.1. The next closest QB was Blake Bortles with a 13.8 yard average. This is a testament to Mettenberger's ability to work the ball down the field.

Strengths:

Arm Strength- I remember hearing a story while Georgia was recruiting Mettenberger about him shattering one of his receivers eye sockets with a ball that he fired a little too hard on a slant. I didn't believe the story at first but then I watched Mettenberger in Georgia's spring game. I remember thinking after the game that his receiver with the shattered eye socket was lucky that his head was still attached. Mettenberger has a howitzer attached to his right shoulder. Watching him throw is like watching Usain Bolt run a 100 meter dash. Everyone else looks like they're running as hard as they can while Bolt looks like he's taking a jog. That's what Mettenberger's arm strength is like. There's not a lot of arm or body action but the ball comes out hot. I think all of his receivers would describe his passes ass heavy. He throws the type of ball that'll take you along for a ride if your feet aren't on the ground when it hits your hands. Aside from Derek Carr, Mettenberger has the strongest arm of in this years draft class. He can make the deep out and comeback throws effortlessly. Watch the video below to see the arm strength that I'm talking about.

Deep Ball Accuracy- Mettenberger has proved that he can connect on deep passes. He's a bit inconsistent with his setup and trajectory but he gets the ball into his receiver's hands. When he's under center teams have to respect his ability to go deep. That's something that will make him valuable immediately. With some coaching I think he could become an elite deep ball passer.

Pocket Presence/Footwork- Mettenberger took a lot of snaps from under center at LSU. Certainly a lot more than most college QBs do these days. For such a big guy, Mettenberger does a great job of getting away from center quickly and creating space between himself and his offensive line. He needs to start climbing the pocket more consistently. He stands tall in the pocket and isn't afraid of pressure. He routinely steps into throws even though he knows he's going to take a hit. For a guy that isn't going to make a lot of defenders miss, this is an important trait. Luckily Mettenberger has the size to absorb a lot of hits.

Awareness-Mettenberger always has the down, distance, field position, score and amount of time left on the clock running through his mind. He knows when a play is dead. He throws the ball away when he knows a play isn't going to work. He'll tuck the ball away and fight for a yard or two if it means staying in field goal range. It' not something that people will talk about much, but this is one of Mettenberger's biggest assets.

Weaknesses:

Mobility- Zach Mettenberger probably hasn't won too many footraces in his life. He's a big guy and he moves like one. The thing that concerns me about his lack of mobility is that he struggles with throwing on the run. It just means that teams will have to give him enough time to get the ball off because he's not going to make a lot of plays when he's forced to improvise. You can see some examples of Mettenberger throwing on the run in the video below.

Touch- It's pretty common for big, strong, Quarterbacks to struggle with touch. Mettenberger flashes the ability to put touch on the ball at times but in the 10 games I watched from his senior season, he seemed to struggle with putting touch on the ball more often than not. It's a skill he'll need to improve as he continues to develop as a QB. You can see what I mean in the video below.

Overview:

Zach Mettenberger is a big, strong armed quarterback, who makes good decisions. He needs to develop the ability to use his eyes to manipulate the defense. He also needs to work on getting the ball out of his hands on timing throws. But the guy has too much talent for those things to keep him off of the field. Zach Mettenberger will be a starter in the NFL and he'll be successful.

Draft Projection-  Late 2nd-Early 3rd Round- Before the injury Mettenberger might have been a late first round pick. I think he has second round talent but the injury and off the field issues are a concern. Assuming Mettenberger is done getting in trouble and that he stays healthy, whoever selects him will be getting great value.

Quarterback Countdown- #6 David Fales- San Jose St.

I'll start by saying that I surprised myself by ranking David Fales this low. When I started this process I had him a bit higher but as I kept going back and watching games for the second and third time he started creeping down the board. In fact it was more a case of other guys moving up the board then Fales moving down but it's all relative now.

Fales moved around a bit before finding a home at San Jose St. University. In his two years at San Jose St. Fales played in 25 games and threw for 8,382 yards, 66 TDs, 22 INTs, with a completion percentage of 68.1%. As a senior Fales threw for 4,189 yards, 33 TDs, 13 INTs, with a completion percentage of 64.1%. For only starting two seasons Fales accumulated some pretty impressive statistics. His career TD/INT ratio of 3:1 is especially impressive. The biggest question that I have is why was there such a large drop off in completion percentage from Fale's junior season to his senior season? His figures for yardage, TDs and INTs were very similar for both seasons so why the big change in completion percentage? Honestly I haven't been able to figure out what changed between his two seasons as the starter. My one thought is that the loss of his two favorite targets during his junior season, Noel Grigsby and Ryan Otten, forced Fales to develop chemistry with a new group of receivers. Grigsby and Otten combined for 129 receptions, 2,049 yards and 13 TDs during Fales' Junior season. So it's understandable that there would be some drop off in productivity. With that, let's take a look at what Fales' strengths and weaknesses are.

Strengths:

Touch- The most impressive aspect of Fales' game is his touch. Fales excels at throwing deep ball and the fade. He's especially effective throwing the back shoulder fade. The back shoulder throw is becoming an essential weapon for Quarterbacks in the NFL. I think that Fales ability in with this throw will be something  he'll use early and often during his career.

Intermediate Accuracy- Fales excels at throwing deep in and post routes. While there are questions about Fales' arm strength you would never know it when you see the zip that he can put on these passes.

Intelligence- Fales is a smart guy. He's not going to have any issues learning a new offense or getting through his progression.Whatever teams think he lacks in arm strength he certainly makes up for in this category. Fales isn't going to put his team in bad positions very often and that can be a valuable trait.

Weaknesses:

Arm Strength- I would categorize Fales' arm strength as on the bottom end of average. You're not going to watch him and have visions of Chad Pennington late in his career but you won't confuse him with Jay Cutler either. The important question regarding Fales' arm strength is whether or not he can make the deep out and comeback throws that many offenses rely on? I'm leaning towards no. That's my biggest concern with Fales. Arm strength buys you time in the NFL. Guys like Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford get a split second longer to make decisions than everyone else. Fales isn't going to have that luxury. He'll have to rely on anticipation and timing.

Overview- Fales is a smart passer with above average touch and average arm strength. At worst I think Fales will have a long career as a backup. But I think he'll more than likely he'll get an opportunity as a starter.

Draft Projection: Fales has 3rd-4th round talent and I think he'll be selected no earlier than that.

Thanks again to all of the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you do compiling prospect video.

I'll be back tomorrow with QB #5.

Quarterback Countdown- #7 Johnny Manziel- Texas A&M

He’s been the most exciting player to watch in college football for the last two years. He’s a Sportscenter regular for his plays on and off of the field. He’s got the height of slot receiver, hands the size of a defensive end and he plays with Micky Ward vs. Arturo Gatti caliber heart. He views turnovers as a necessary evil and pocket presence as luxury. He’s simultaneously astounding and confounding. He makes a habit of taking leaps forward only to take bounds back. He’s an ankle breaking, Heisman winning, rule violating, ticket selling machine in the flesh. Put more simply, he’s Johnny Football.

And then there’s that Johnny Manziel guy too…

This Johnny Manziel guy from what I can tell is a semi-competent pocket passer from Tyler, Texas. He’s a QB that flashes touch, above average arm strength and an ability to get the ball out of his hands relatively quickly at times. This Manziel character appears to be coachable even. The problem is that you never know how much Manziel you’re going to get before Johnny Football takes over. And once Johnny Football takes over there’s no way of knowing what he’s going to do.  From what I can tell Johnny football seems to appear whenever Manziel senses any sort of pressure whatsoever. Beyond that, modern science has been unable to explain what activates the transformation.

All jokes aside, I’m sure I've lost whatever sliver of credibility I might have had by ranking Johnny Football as my #7 quarterback. But before you completely write me off at least give me a chance to explain. Let’s start with the numbers.

Manziel played in 26 games in his two years as a starter for Texas A&M. During his 2 year career he threw for 7,820 yards with 63 TDs, 22 INTs with a 68.9% completion percentage while rushing for 2,169 yards and 30 TDs. in his final season at A&M he threw for 4,114 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs with a completion percentage of 69.9% while rushing for 759 yards and 9 TDs. Of my top ten quarterbacks Manziel ranked 2^nd in completion percentage and 3^rd in yards per completion for the 2013 season. Manziel was the only QB in my top 10 to finish in the top 3 in both of these categories. Ranking that high in both categories would indicate that Manziel is not only accuratein general but accurate throwing the ball down the field. All of this is impressive and only supports Manziel’s 1^st round aspirations. So why am I such a non-believer? Well…… it’s kind of a long story but I’ll do my best to keep it brief.

I was mostly joking with the idea that Johnny Manziel and Johnny Football are different people but when I watch the guy play I feel like there are two separate QBs that you have to evaluate. There’s the guy that shows up when the pressure is on and starts running in circles (very nice circles mid you) and then there’s the guy that makes throws from inside the pocket. Both do things well and not so well but I think in order to give an honest evaluation of Manziel you have to understand both sides. So with that in mind I’m going to go about this a little differently than usual. First I’ll highlight the strengths and weaknesses of his game outside of the pocket (AKA Johnny Football). Then I’ll walk you through what I think about the guy that plays from inside the pocket (AKA Johnny Manziel).

Johnny Football

Strengths:

Athleticism/Throwing on the Run- I don’t really need to say too much here. We've all seen what Johnny Football can do with his legs. And his ability to make throws on the run is equally as impressive. You've all probably seen most of these plays but just for fun let’s watch some of it again. Check out the video below.

Weaknesses:

Decision Making- Sometimes it’s passing up an easy throw for a first down and electing to run instead. Other times it’s was throwing the ball up to a group of WRs and DBs like they were playing a game of 500. And sometimes it’s getting called for intentional grounding instead of just taking a sack. But that bonehead play is always around the corner with Johnny Football. And in the words of Nobel Laureate poet Trinidad James, “Don’t believe me just watch” the video below.

Ball Security- I’d say that Manziel carries the ball like a loaf of bread but I’ve never known anyone to be that careless with a loaf of bread. The term “tuck it and run” doesn’t apply to Manziel because he doesn’t ever tuck the ball away. Part of the problem is that Manziel has huge hands especially for a guy his size. He’s overconfident in his ability to hold on to the ball and it shows. Combine this with his belief that he can make any throw and you’ve got a turnover machine in the making. This is definitely something that can be coached but it’s a habit that will give coaches and fans fits.

Johnny Manziel

Strengths:

Touch- Manziels’s biggest asset from inside the pocket is his touch. He’s shown the ability to drop passes over the top on deep balls as well as the ability to hang back shoulder throws up for his receivers just out of reach of the defensive backs or line backers covering them. Manziel’s ability to connect on deep balls is impressive because it’s something that even good pocket passers struggle with. Even Aaron Rodgers was criticized coming out of Cal for his inability to connect on deep passes. This is the one area as a pocket passer where Manziel is ahead of the game. Watch the video below to see the type of touch that Manziel possesses.

Weaknesses:

Reading Coverage/Staring Down Receivers- Quarterbacks go through a few stages of being able to read coverage. The first stage is being able to recognize a coverage post-snap once the defenders declare their intentions. The second stage is being able to identify a coverage pre-snap. And finally, after being able to diagnose a coverage pre-snap a quarterback has to learn to use his eyes to manipulate the coverage from the moment he gets to the line of scrimmage until the ball leaves his hands. Johnny Manziel struggles with the very first stage of this progression. In the video below you’ll see Manziel fail to diagnose coverage pre-snap, post snap in addition to seeing him stare down receivers from the time the ball is snapped.

Pocket Presence- Manziel, like several other quarterbacks in this draft class, has a tendency to sit at the top of the pocket instead of climbing it. Sitting at the top of the pocket is bad for a few reasons. First of all when QBs get their momentum moving forward it makes it easier to shift their weight forward and deliver strong throws. The second reason is that every yard, foot and inch closer to the line of scrimmage the QB is when he releases the ball reduces the distance that the ball has to travel. And when playing against NFL defensive backs that like to jump routes, QBs need to shorten that distance whenever possible. The final reason and probably the most important is that linemen expect their QB to step up into the pocket. The linemen don’t have the luxury of being able to glance back and check to see where their QB is. Tackles are taught to block inside out so when a QB sits at the top of the pocket and the tackles on either side expect him to step up, they may end up pushing a defensive end our outside linebacker right into him. If Manziel is going to be successful as a pocket passer then there will definitely have to be some coaching done in this area.

Bottom Line:

At the end of the day there are two questions that teams will need to answer about Manziel. The First question is whether or not Manziel can win consistently playing the way that he does currently? Can he play like Michael Vick did when he had early success in Atlanta? The second question is whether or not Manziel can be coached into playing like a traditional pocket passer? And if the developmental route for Manziel is a team’s plan is that worth a first round pick?

It’s clear to me that Manziel is at his best when he’s improvising. When he’s confined to the pocket Maziel looks down right average. He has average arm strength, above average touch and a below average cognitive abilities from within the pocket. And I don’t think that style of play is conducive to continued success as a quarterback in the NFL.

Draft Projection- 3^rd-4^th round. Honestly I think that a 3^rd round pick is too much. But my projection is irrelevant because Johnny Manziel’s hype machine has been hard at work for far too long. He’ll probably end up going in the top ten but I truly believe that if a team takes Manziel that early they will end up regretting it for years to come. He’ll win a few games early on while teams adjust to his strengths, but in the end they’ll figure out how to contain him and that will be the end of that.

The last thing I’ll say is that there should NEVER be this level of uncertainty surrounding a first round pick let alone a top 5 pick. If there’s a franchise that’s willing to risk an early pick on him then they’re truly meant to be together.

I’ll be back soon with QB #6.

Thanks again to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you do compiling video.

Quarterback Countdown- #8 Aaron Murray- Georgia

I’m a Bulldogs fan so this one hits close to home. Aaron Murray started for four years for my Bulldogs and while he managed to end his career with more yards than any other QB in SEC history he never seemed to be able to win the big game. Despite his inability to win when it counts Murray seemed to be pretty locked in to at least a 3^rd round pick but then he tore his ACL against Kentucky in November. The injury has thrown Murray’s draft-stock into a tailspin. Murray plans to be ready to throw at Georgia’s April 16^th pro day. A strong pro day is going to be essential if Murray wants to regain his former standing in the eyes of NFL scouts.

During his 4 year career Murray passed for 13,166 yards, 121 TDs, 41 INTs with a completion percentage of 62.3%. As a senior Murray threw for 3,075 yards, 26 TDs, 9 INTs and a completion percentage of 64.8%. Murray ranked 8^th in completion percentage out of my top ten QBs and 4^th in yards per completion. Murray ranked 9^th in completion percentage out of my top 10 QBs during the 2013 season but ranked 4^th in yards per completion. Those numbers are a reflection of Georgia’s offense pushing the ball down the field.

Strengths:

Arm Strength- Murray has above average arm strength and it shows on post routes and deep in routes. Murray has the arm strength to make the deep out and comeback throws that many NFL teams ask their QBs to make. See the video below.

Touch- Murray appears to have above average touch. He has the ability to drop passes in between zone coverage and has good control on deep balls. See the video below.

Footwork- Murray has consistent footwork and quickly gets his weight shifted before hitting the top of his drop.

Weaknesses:

Decision Making/Reading Coverage- Murray has a hard time reading coverage. He has an especially hard time identifying underneath coverage. He has a tendency to lock in on his receiver which DBs and LBs pick up on very quickly. He stares down his receiver, a DB or LB peels off his underneath coverage and gets an easy pick. It happens way too frequently. There are plenty of examples in the video below.

Release-Murray’s release is a bit loopy. The ball dips down below his elbow before coming returning to the position that it should be in before beginning to move forward. Murray is very coachable so I’m sure that it’s something that can be fixed at the next level. It will need to be addressed to reduce the chance of fumbles.

Overview:

Aaron Murray is going to make it in the NFL. I’m not sure if it will be as a starter or a backup but he’s going to make it. He’s a short pocket passer with above average arm strength, mobility and touch. Murray really has one thing that he needs to focus on improving and that’s his ability to read defenses. Murray really struggled with identifying coverage at the collegiate level and it gets a lot more difficult in the pros. He’ll need to sit for at least a year but when he learns how to use read defenses quickly and use his eyes he can definitely start in the league. The question is which teams think that they can coach him up and how long it will take. Aaron never lived up to his full potential at Georgia and I think he knows that. Over the next few months people will knock Murray for never winning big game, his height and the health of his knee. The bottom line is that the team that drafts him will be getting a player that competes on every play. At some point he’ll get a shot as a starter.

Draft Projection- 4^th round. Murray has too much ability to last any longer than the 4^th round unless teams are concerned about his knee. I could see a team taking him in the third if they fall in love with him.

That’s all for now. 

Thanks again to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all the work you do compiling prospect video.

I’ll be back soon with QB #7.