He’s been the most exciting player to watch in college
football for the last two years. He’s a Sportscenter regular for his plays on
and off of the field. He’s got the height of slot receiver, hands the size of a
defensive end and he plays with Micky Ward vs. Arturo Gatti caliber heart. He
views turnovers as a necessary evil and pocket presence as luxury. He’s
simultaneously astounding and confounding. He makes a habit of taking leaps
forward only to take bounds back. He’s an ankle breaking, Heisman winning, rule
violating, ticket selling machine in the flesh. Put more simply, he’s Johnny
Football.
And then there’s that Johnny Manziel guy too…
This Johnny Manziel guy from what I can tell is a semi-competent
pocket passer from Tyler, Texas. He’s a QB that flashes touch, above average
arm strength and an ability to get the ball out of his hands relatively quickly
at times. This Manziel character appears to be coachable even. The problem is
that you never know how much Manziel you’re going to get before Johnny Football
takes over. And once Johnny Football takes over there’s no way of knowing what
he’s going to do. From what I can tell
Johnny football seems to appear whenever Manziel senses any sort of pressure
whatsoever. Beyond that, modern science has been unable to explain what
activates the transformation.
All jokes aside, I’m sure I've lost whatever sliver of
credibility I might have had by ranking Johnny Football as my #7 quarterback.
But before you completely write me off at least give me a chance to explain.
Let’s start with the numbers.
Manziel played in 26 games in his two years as a starter for
Texas A&M. During his 2 year career he threw for 7,820 yards with 63 TDs,
22 INTs with a 68.9% completion percentage while rushing for 2,169 yards and 30
TDs. in his final season at A&M he threw for 4,114 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs with a
completion percentage of 69.9% while rushing for 759 yards and 9 TDs. Of my top
ten quarterbacks Manziel ranked 2nd in completion percentage and 3rd
in yards per completion for the 2013 season. Manziel was the only QB in my top
10 to finish in the top 3 in both of these categories. Ranking that high in
both categories would indicate that Manziel is not only accuratein general but
accurate throwing the ball down the field. All of this is impressive and only
supports Manziel’s 1st round aspirations. So why am I such a
non-believer? Well…… it’s kind of a long story but I’ll do my best to keep it
brief.
I was mostly joking with the idea that Johnny Manziel and
Johnny Football are different people but when I watch the guy play I feel like there
are two separate QBs that you have to evaluate. There’s the guy that shows up
when the pressure is on and starts running in circles (very nice circles mid you) and then there’s the guy that makes throws from inside the
pocket. Both do things well and not so well but I think in order to give an
honest evaluation of Manziel you have to understand both sides. So with that in
mind I’m going to go about this a little differently than usual. First I’ll
highlight the strengths and weaknesses of his game outside of the pocket (AKA
Johnny Football). Then I’ll walk you through what I think about the guy that
plays from inside the pocket (AKA Johnny Manziel).
Johnny Football
Strengths:
Athleticism/Throwing
on the Run- I don’t really need to say too much here. We've all seen what
Johnny Football can do with his legs. And his ability to make throws on the run
is equally as impressive. You've all probably seen most of these plays but just
for fun let’s watch some of it again. Check out the video below.
Weaknesses:
Decision Making- Sometimes it’s passing up an easy throw for
a first down and electing to run instead. Other times it’s was throwing the
ball up to a group of WRs and DBs like they were playing a game of 500. And
sometimes it’s getting called for intentional grounding instead of just taking
a sack. But that bonehead play is always around the corner with Johnny Football.
And in the words of Nobel Laureate poet Trinidad James, “Don’t believe me just
watch” the video below.
Ball Security- I’d say that Manziel carries the ball like a
loaf of bread but I’ve never known anyone to be that careless with a loaf of
bread. The term “tuck it and run” doesn’t apply to Manziel because he doesn’t
ever tuck the ball away. Part of the problem is that Manziel has huge hands
especially for a guy his size. He’s overconfident in his ability to hold on to
the ball and it shows. Combine this with his belief that he can make any throw
and you’ve got a turnover machine in the making. This is definitely something that
can be coached but it’s a habit that will give coaches and fans fits.
Johnny Manziel
Strengths:
Touch- Manziels’s
biggest asset from inside the pocket is his touch. He’s shown the ability to
drop passes over the top on deep balls as well as the ability to hang back
shoulder throws up for his receivers just out of reach of the defensive backs
or line backers covering them. Manziel’s ability to connect on deep balls is
impressive because it’s something that even good pocket passers struggle with.
Even Aaron Rodgers was criticized coming out of Cal for his inability to
connect on deep passes. This is the one area as a pocket passer where Manziel
is ahead of the game. Watch the video below to see the type of touch that
Manziel possesses.
Weaknesses:
Reading
Coverage/Staring Down Receivers- Quarterbacks go through a few stages of
being able to read coverage. The first stage is being able to recognize a
coverage post-snap once the defenders declare their intentions. The second
stage is being able to identify a coverage pre-snap. And finally, after being
able to diagnose a coverage pre-snap a quarterback has to learn to use his eyes
to manipulate the coverage from the moment he gets to the line of scrimmage until
the ball leaves his hands. Johnny Manziel struggles with the very first stage
of this progression. In the video below you’ll see Manziel fail to diagnose
coverage pre-snap, post snap in addition to seeing him stare down receivers
from the time the ball is snapped.
Pocket Presence- Manziel,
like several other quarterbacks in this draft class, has a tendency to sit at
the top of the pocket instead of climbing it. Sitting at the top of the pocket
is bad for a few reasons. First of all when QBs get their momentum moving
forward it makes it easier to shift their weight forward and deliver strong
throws. The second reason is that every yard, foot and inch closer to the line
of scrimmage the QB is when he releases the ball reduces the distance that the
ball has to travel. And when playing against NFL defensive backs that like to
jump routes, QBs need to shorten that distance whenever possible. The final
reason and probably the most important is that linemen expect their QB to step
up into the pocket. The linemen don’t have the luxury of being able to glance
back and check to see where their QB is. Tackles are taught to block inside out
so when a QB sits at the top of the pocket and the tackles on either side
expect him to step up, they may end up pushing a defensive end our outside
linebacker right into him. If Manziel is going to be successful as a
pocket passer then there will definitely have to be some coaching done in this
area.
Bottom Line:
At the end of the day there are two questions that teams
will need to answer about Manziel. The First question is whether or not Manziel
can win consistently playing the way that he does currently? Can he play like
Michael Vick did when he had early success in Atlanta? The second question is whether
or not Manziel can be coached into playing like a traditional pocket passer? And
if the developmental route for Manziel is a team’s plan is that worth a first round
pick?
It’s clear to me that Manziel is at his best when he’s
improvising. When he’s confined to the pocket Maziel looks down right average. He
has average arm strength, above average touch and a below average cognitive
abilities from within the pocket. And I don’t think that style of play is
conducive to continued success as a quarterback in the NFL.
Draft Projection- 3rd-4th round.
Honestly I think that a 3rd round pick is too much. But my projection
is irrelevant because Johnny Manziel’s hype machine has been hard at work for
far too long. He’ll probably end up going in the top ten but I truly believe
that if a team takes Manziel that early they will end up regretting it for
years to come. He’ll win a few games early on while teams adjust to his
strengths, but in the end they’ll figure out how to contain him and that will
be the end of that.
The last thing I’ll say is that there should NEVER be this
level of uncertainty surrounding a first round pick let alone a top 5 pick. If
there’s a franchise that’s willing to risk an early pick on him then they’re truly
meant to be together.
I’ll be back soon with QB #6.
Thanks again to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the
work you do compiling video.
No comments:
Post a Comment