Quarterback Countdown- #9 Brett Smith - Wyoming

Brett Smith played in 35 games during his 3 seasons at the University of Wyoming.  He finished his career with 8,834 yards, 76 TDs, 28 INTs and a completion percentage of 61.9% while rushing for 1,529 yards and 20 TDs. In his final season at Wyoming Smith passed for 3,375 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs with a completion percentage of 62.7% while rushing for 571 yards and 4 TDs. In the table below (which is sorted by completion percentage) you can see that among my top 10 QBs, Smith ranked 9^th in completion percentage and 9^th in yards per completion.  The combination of a low completion percentage and low yards per completion average is worrisome but in a moment I’ll explain why it doesn't worry me with Smith as much as it does with my #10 QB Tom Savage.

Strengths:

Decision Making- What I like most about Brett Smith is his ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s able to do this for a few reasons. The first is that he does a good job of reading coverage before the ball is snapped. The second reason is that he has great anticipation. The third reason is that he has developed chemistry with his receivers which isn't something that all college QBs end up doing. It takes time for a QB to build chemistry with his receivers but it also takes dedication and the ability to communicate. All of these factors come into play in determining whether or not a QB gets the ball out quickly. Seeing the way that Smith routinely gets the ball out before his receivers make their breaks along with the fact that his receivers are ready for the ball gives me confidence that he will be able to build chemistry with receivers at the next level which is one of the most important aspects of being an NFL QB. The video below is a compilation of plays in which Smith shows his ability to get the ball out quickly.

Athleticism- What might be more impressive than Smith’s ability to get the ball out quickly is what he has the ability to do when there isn't anyone open immediately. People praise Johnny Manziel for his ability to make plays outside of the pocket and on the run and when I watch Brett Smith I see a lot of the same ability. Smith doesn’t possess the same level of agility as Manziel but he has similar top end speed and more importantly he understands when to use his athleticism. The video below should give you a feel for the type of plays Brett Smith can make with his feet.

Weaknesses:

Arm Strength/Deep Accuracy- Smith just flat out doesn't have the type of arm strength that starting quarterbacks in the NFL usually possess. I was only able to watch four of his games but during those games he was rarely asked to throw deep outs and comebacks. Part of that is probably because it isn't a big part of their offense but the bigger reason is that he can’t produce the velocity necessary to make those throws routinely.  And his lack of deep ball accuracy seems to be a product of the fact that he has  to really put everything into the ball and loses touch.

Mechanics- Smith has an inconsistent delivery that is different than most QBs.  It seems to change depending on the depth of the route. It’s more compact on shorter throws which allows him to get the ball out quickly. Coaches may try to change his throwing mechanics but I don’t think it’s necessary. The only reason I list it as a weakness is that I think he may be able to make some adjustments to add touch to his deep ball.

Overview- Brett Smith will not be a starting QB in the NFL. He does a few things really well unfortunately the one thing he really struggles with (arm strength) isn't something that he can really improve. That being said, I think he could have a very successful career as a backup. Smith’s ability to get the ball out quickly makes him a good fit for a lot of west coast offenses. Smith’s has the ability to establish chemistry quickly with receivers and that ability is crucial when you’re expected to come off of the bench and keep the offense from missing a beat. Smith’s ability to make plays with his legs will add a dimension to most offenses.  It’s fair to ask why I would rank Brett Smith ahead of Tom Savage if I consider Smith to be a career backup. The reason is that I feel Savage has a lower floor than Smith.  Savage may end up starting at some point but more than likely he’ll end up as a backup.

Draft Projection: 7^th Round - Undrafted

I’ll be back tomorrow with QB #8.

And thanks again to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for the work you do compiling prospect video.

Quarterback Countdown- #10 Tom Savage

Over the next two months I plan on ranking the top players at every position and I’ll back it up with as much video evidence as possible. And since QB is the most high profile position I thought I would get it out of the way first. So over the next 10 days I will be doing a countdown of who I consider to be the top 10 QBs in this draft class. But before I get to QB #10 (Tom Savage) I wanted to acknowledge the guys who fell just short of the top 10.

11. AJ McCarron- Alabama

12. Logan Thomas- Virginia Tech

13. Keith Wenning- Ball St.

14. Bryn Renner- North Carolina

15. Tajh Boyd- Clemson

Tom Savage began his college career at Rutgers where he played in 10 games as a freshman and threw for 14 TDs, 7 INTs and a completion percentage of 52.3%. Savage was inured as a sophomore and failed to earn his starting job back once he was healthy. After falling out of favor during his sophomore season Savage transferred to the University of Arizona. Arizona’s offensive scheme ended up being a bad fit so he transferred again, this time to the University of Pittsburgh. By rule, Savage was forced to sit out his junior season after transferring. As a senior Savage started 13 games and led the Panthers to a 7-6 record with 21TDs, 9 INTs with a completion percentage of 61.2% and a whopping 43 sacks. Savage finished his career with 5,690 yards, 37 TDs and 19 INTs with a 56.8% completion percentage and 92 sacks.

Savage’s stats are definitely not impressive when compared to the other top QB prospects in this class. Maybe his numbers would've been better if he had spent more time with the same coaches and receivers but it is what it is. The table below is filled with several metrics for the QBs that I consider to be the top 10 in this draft class. There are a few stats about Savage that really stick out to me. The first is that among my top 10 QBs he has the lowest TD/INT ratio. The second is that he had the lowest completion percentage paired with the second lowest yards per completion average. I could understand if he was sacrificing completion percentage for longer completions (Like Zach Mettenbereger) but a low completion percentage shouldn't be coupled with a low yards per completion percentage. The final stat that sticks out to me is that Savage took 43 sacks as a senior. It’s totally fine to wonder whether the offensive line is to blame but with nearly twice as many sacks as any other QB in my top ten you have to think he could have done more to get the ball out of his hands. All in all the numbers don’t look too great.

Top 10 QBs 2013
	COMP	ATT	Comp %	YDS	YDS/CMP	TD	INT	TD/INT	SCK
Teddy Bridgewater	303	427	71.0%	3970	13.1	31	4	7.75	23
Derek Carr	453	659	68.7%	5082	11.2	50	8	6.25	11
Jimmy Garoppolo	375	568	66.0%	5050	13.5	53	9	5.89	19
Aaron Murray	225	347	64.8%	3075	13.7	26	9	2.89	13
Johny Manziel	300	429	69.9%	4114	13.7	37	13	2.85	19
Blake Bortles	259	382	67.8%	3581	13.8	25	9	2.78	21
Zach Mettenbereger	192	296	64.9%	3082	16.1	22	8	2.75	21
Brett Smith	293	467	62.7%	3375	11.5	29	11	2.64	25
David Fales	312	487	64.1%	4189	13.4	33	13	2.54	19
Tom Savage	238	389	61.2%	2958	12.4	21	9	2.33	43
Average	227	342	66.3%	2960	13.0	25.2	7.2	3.52	16.5

Strengths:

After examining Savage’s stats compared to the other top QBs in this draft class it would be perfectly reasonable to wonder why I would have him ranked in the top 10. And in this case there are two very clear answers.

Size- Savage measured in at 6’4” and 228LBs at the scouting combine. His size combined with his strong arm make him hard to ignore. Although guys like Russell Wilson and Drew Brees have shown that small stature can be overcome at the QB position it’s still something that scouts seem to covet at the position.

Arm Strength- The reason teams are overlooking Savage’s lack of production is his arm strength. It’s impossible to miss it. The ball jumps off of his hands. He has the zip to throw the deep outs, comebacks, posts, and seam routes that are essential in most NFL schemes and that’s not something that you can say for all of the top prospects in this class. In the video below you can see Savage make most of the throws that I just mentioned.

Weaknesses:

Pocket Presence- Outside of his accuracy issues my biggest concern with Savage is that he has poor pocket presence. He’s made a habit of getting to the top of his drop and just sitting there. The guys who make it in the NFL understand the importance of climbing the pocket. Sitting at the top of the pocket is bad for a few reasons. First of all when QBs get their momentum moving forward makes it easier to shift their weight forward and make a strong throws. The second reason is that every yard, foot and inch closer to the line of scrimmage the QB is when he releases the ball reduces the distance that the ball has to travel. And when playing against NFL defensive backs that like to jump routes, QBs need to shorten that distance whenever possible. The final reason and probably the most important is that lineman expect their QB to step up into the pocket. The lineman don’t have the luxury of being able to glance back and check to see where their QB is. Tackles are taught to block inside out so when a QB sits at the top of the pocket and the tackles on either side expect him to step up, they may end up pushing a defensive end our outside linebacker right into him. This is exactly what happens on the first play in the video below. Savage makes his drop and sits at the top of the pocket instead of stepping up. The right tackle probably got blamed for the sack but the defensive end would have just gone flying by if Savage would've just stepped up into the pocket. The rest of the plays are more examples of Savage doing the exact same thing but with less dramatic results. I only highlighted a few plays but I would say that he fails to climb the pocket about 65-70% of the time.

Deep Ball accuracy- It’s obvious that accuracy as a whole is an issue for Savage but his struggles with connecting on deep passes is especially noticeable. It’s not just that he misses it’s that he misses different ways every time. One play it’s a bad overthrow and the next play the ball is woefully under-thrown. The video below shows the deep ball miscues from three different games.

Stares Down Receivers- A skill that QBs in the NFL have to develop is the ability to use their eyes to look off coverage. Savage has a tendency to stare down his receivers. It doesn't matter how strong of an arm you have if the defense knows where the ball is going before it’s released. The video below shows two examples of Savage staring down his receiver from the beginning of the play allowing the safety to get a jump on the route and make a play on the ball.  

What to Expect:

 Tom Savage has the size and arm strength to succeed as an NFL QB. He has experience taking snaps from under center which is becoming increasingly rare. He needs some coaching on pocket presence, using his eyes to control the defense and there are a few things about his footwork and setup that definitely need work. But given a couple years to learn a system and get the coaching he needs I could see Savage as a starter in the league or at least a solid backup. At this point there is no way that I would draft him if I was looking for a QB to start right away. That being said, I think as the draft gets closer teams will become more and more intrigued with his blend of size and arm strength and he will ultimately end up being drafted earlier than he should be (probably the third or fourth round).

That’s all for today. Tomorrow I’ll be back with QB #9.

A big thanks to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all the work you guys do compiling prospect video.