Quarterback Countdown- #1 Teddy Bridgewater- Louisville

Teddy Bridgewater has been taking shots from the media this entire off-season. Bridgewater began his junior season regarded by most as the top college QB in the country without any clear competition. All he did during his junior season was put up his best statistical year yet while leading his team to a 12-1 record (the team's best record in 30 years). You would think Bridgewater's performance this past season would solidify his position as this year's top quarterback. But after Bridgewater's highly criticized pro day performance, it seems like ESPN and NFL Network are determined to knock him down a few notches. But luckily for Mr. Bridgewater, there are still a lot of us who care more about his performance during the actual football season than his performance during the Underwear Olympics (also known as the NFL Scouting Combine) and his pro day. Teddy Bridgewater is still the best quarterback in this draft class and it's not close.

Teddy Bridgewater played in 39 games during his three year career at Louisville. During that time he passed for 9,817 yards, 72 TDs, 24 INTs, with a 68.4% completion percentage. In his final season at Louisville, Bridgewater passed for 3,970 yards, 31 TDs, and 4 INTs, while completing 71.0% of his passes. Bridewater had his best statistical year by far in his final season. His TD/INT ratio of 7.75 to 1 was the best of all my top 10 QBs. Bridgewater's most noteable performance of his junior season came against Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Bridgewater went 35 for 45 for 447 yards, with 3 TDs and no interceptions.

Strengths:

Decision Making/Timing Routes- The most impressive facet of Bridgewater's game is his ability to get through his progression quickly. He not only makes the correct decision, he makes it quickly. On the majority of Bridgewater's drop-backs, he'll hit the last step in the drop, set and fire the ball. This is a testament to Bridgewater's mastery of Louisville's offense and his ability to make a good pre-snap read. Watch the video below and pay attention to how quickly the ball comes out of Bridgewater's hands after he reaches the top of his drop.

Footwork/Pocket Presence- Bridgewater has the best footwork in this draft class by a wide margin. His footwork is precise and deliberate. He gets away from the line quickly, gets a lot of depth, and when he reaches the top of his drop the ball comes out. If there isn't an open receiver, Bridgewater will climb the pocket and wait for a receiver to come open. Most QBs have a tendency to sit at the top of the pocket which makes the job of the left and right tackle a lot more difficult. Offensive tackles expect their QB to step up into the pocket. When an edge rusher tries to use an outside speed rush, tackles are taught to push the rusher past the QB. When the QB sits at the top of the pocket, the tackle may end up pushing the pass rusher directly into the QB. Climbing the pocket also gets the QB's momentum moving forward which adds velocity to the throw and reduces the distance that the ball has to travel. The plays in the video below all illustrate how comfortable Bridgewater is operating inside of the pocket.

Eye Control- Bridgewater understands how to use his eyes to manipulate the defense. He routinely uses his eyes to move safeties and linebackers. This is an extremely important tool to have at the pro level. You can see examples of this in the video below.

Throwing on the Run- After Bridgewater's pro day there were a lot of questions being raised about his ability to make accurate throws on the run. Kurt Warner and Mike Mayock went to town talking about how poor Bridgewater's throwing motion was on the run. If you go back and watch Bridgewater make these throws during an actual game, your doubts will be put to rest. See the video below.

Touch- Teddy has great touch. He's not quite on the level of Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo but he can drop the ball in when he needs to.

Weaknesses:

Deep Ball Accuracy- This is the only area of Bridgewater's game that really concerns me. He hasn't shown the type of chemistry with his receivers down the field that you would like to see out of a top QB prospect. Ryan Tanehill exhibited the same inability during college and it has continued to be an issue for him as pro. Teams will have to take a closer look at this in private workouts to determine whether or not they think this can be fixed.

Ball Security- Much like Manziel, Bridgewater has a tendency to hold the ball with one hand when he starts to scramble. Luckily Bridgewater doesn't scramble nearly as much as Manziel. This isn't a huge issue because Bridgewater keeps two hands on the ball whenever he's in the pocket. But it's something teams should keep an eye out for.

Overview:

Teddy Bridgewater is the best QB in this draft class, right now. His football IQ and work ethic are his biggest assets. He doesn't have prototypical size or arm strength but he more than makes up for these deficiencies with the strengths that I just mentioned. Derek Carr has the most upside of any QB in the 2014 class but Bridgewater is the most pro-ready. I think Bridgewater will be able to step in and start immediately.

Draft Projection- 1st Overall. Let me point out that this is where I think Bridgewater should be selected. With the way that things are going, I think Teddy will come off of the board between pick 5 and pick 8. But if the Texans do pass on Teddy Bridgewater for Blake Bortles, they will be regretting it for quite some time.

That's all for now. I'm thinking that I'll move on to profiling some receivers next but we'll see what happens.

And thanks again to everyone at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you guys to compiling prospect video.

Quarterback Countdown- #5 Zack Mettenberger- LSU

Zach Mettenberger measured in at 6'5" and 224 at the scouting combine. He's a big guy, with a bigger arm and a lot of potential. Before tearing his ACL and spraining his MCL against Arkansas, Mettenberger was considered by some to be a potential first round pick. He suffered the injury in late November. He wasn't able to have surgery on his ACL until early in January because doctors wanted to wait for his MCL to heal. So it's very surprising to hear that Mettenberger plans to throw for scouts on March 27th at LSUs Pro Day, not even 4 months after his surgery. In addition to being a testament to Mettenberger's work ethic, being ready to throw at this point  should give teams hope that he'll be ready to play sooner than later. With that in mind, let's talk about some numbers.

Zach Mettenberger started his college career with the Georgia Bulldogs. After some off the field issues as a Freshman he was kicked off of the team and had to go play junior college ball. After a year playing JUCO ball Mettenberger transferred to LSU. As a senior Mettenberger passed for 3,082 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs and a completion percentage of 64.9%. Of my top 10 QBs, Mettenberger ranked 6th in completion percentage and 1st in yards per completion during his senior season. Mettenburger's yards per completion average was 16.1. The next closest QB was Blake Bortles with a 13.8 yard average. This is a testament to Mettenberger's ability to work the ball down the field.

Strengths:

Arm Strength- I remember hearing a story while Georgia was recruiting Mettenberger about him shattering one of his receivers eye sockets with a ball that he fired a little too hard on a slant. I didn't believe the story at first but then I watched Mettenberger in Georgia's spring game. I remember thinking after the game that his receiver with the shattered eye socket was lucky that his head was still attached. Mettenberger has a howitzer attached to his right shoulder. Watching him throw is like watching Usain Bolt run a 100 meter dash. Everyone else looks like they're running as hard as they can while Bolt looks like he's taking a jog. That's what Mettenberger's arm strength is like. There's not a lot of arm or body action but the ball comes out hot. I think all of his receivers would describe his passes ass heavy. He throws the type of ball that'll take you along for a ride if your feet aren't on the ground when it hits your hands. Aside from Derek Carr, Mettenberger has the strongest arm of in this years draft class. He can make the deep out and comeback throws effortlessly. Watch the video below to see the arm strength that I'm talking about.

Deep Ball Accuracy- Mettenberger has proved that he can connect on deep passes. He's a bit inconsistent with his setup and trajectory but he gets the ball into his receiver's hands. When he's under center teams have to respect his ability to go deep. That's something that will make him valuable immediately. With some coaching I think he could become an elite deep ball passer.

Pocket Presence/Footwork- Mettenberger took a lot of snaps from under center at LSU. Certainly a lot more than most college QBs do these days. For such a big guy, Mettenberger does a great job of getting away from center quickly and creating space between himself and his offensive line. He needs to start climbing the pocket more consistently. He stands tall in the pocket and isn't afraid of pressure. He routinely steps into throws even though he knows he's going to take a hit. For a guy that isn't going to make a lot of defenders miss, this is an important trait. Luckily Mettenberger has the size to absorb a lot of hits.

Awareness-Mettenberger always has the down, distance, field position, score and amount of time left on the clock running through his mind. He knows when a play is dead. He throws the ball away when he knows a play isn't going to work. He'll tuck the ball away and fight for a yard or two if it means staying in field goal range. It' not something that people will talk about much, but this is one of Mettenberger's biggest assets.

Weaknesses:

Mobility- Zach Mettenberger probably hasn't won too many footraces in his life. He's a big guy and he moves like one. The thing that concerns me about his lack of mobility is that he struggles with throwing on the run. It just means that teams will have to give him enough time to get the ball off because he's not going to make a lot of plays when he's forced to improvise. You can see some examples of Mettenberger throwing on the run in the video below.

Touch- It's pretty common for big, strong, Quarterbacks to struggle with touch. Mettenberger flashes the ability to put touch on the ball at times but in the 10 games I watched from his senior season, he seemed to struggle with putting touch on the ball more often than not. It's a skill he'll need to improve as he continues to develop as a QB. You can see what I mean in the video below.

Overview:

Zach Mettenberger is a big, strong armed quarterback, who makes good decisions. He needs to develop the ability to use his eyes to manipulate the defense. He also needs to work on getting the ball out of his hands on timing throws. But the guy has too much talent for those things to keep him off of the field. Zach Mettenberger will be a starter in the NFL and he'll be successful.

Draft Projection-  Late 2nd-Early 3rd Round- Before the injury Mettenberger might have been a late first round pick. I think he has second round talent but the injury and off the field issues are a concern. Assuming Mettenberger is done getting in trouble and that he stays healthy, whoever selects him will be getting great value.

Quarterback Countdown- #10 Tom Savage

Over the next two months I plan on ranking the top players at every position and I’ll back it up with as much video evidence as possible. And since QB is the most high profile position I thought I would get it out of the way first. So over the next 10 days I will be doing a countdown of who I consider to be the top 10 QBs in this draft class. But before I get to QB #10 (Tom Savage) I wanted to acknowledge the guys who fell just short of the top 10.

11. AJ McCarron- Alabama

12. Logan Thomas- Virginia Tech

13. Keith Wenning- Ball St.

14. Bryn Renner- North Carolina

15. Tajh Boyd- Clemson

Tom Savage began his college career at Rutgers where he played in 10 games as a freshman and threw for 14 TDs, 7 INTs and a completion percentage of 52.3%. Savage was inured as a sophomore and failed to earn his starting job back once he was healthy. After falling out of favor during his sophomore season Savage transferred to the University of Arizona. Arizona’s offensive scheme ended up being a bad fit so he transferred again, this time to the University of Pittsburgh. By rule, Savage was forced to sit out his junior season after transferring. As a senior Savage started 13 games and led the Panthers to a 7-6 record with 21TDs, 9 INTs with a completion percentage of 61.2% and a whopping 43 sacks. Savage finished his career with 5,690 yards, 37 TDs and 19 INTs with a 56.8% completion percentage and 92 sacks.

Savage’s stats are definitely not impressive when compared to the other top QB prospects in this class. Maybe his numbers would've been better if he had spent more time with the same coaches and receivers but it is what it is. The table below is filled with several metrics for the QBs that I consider to be the top 10 in this draft class. There are a few stats about Savage that really stick out to me. The first is that among my top 10 QBs he has the lowest TD/INT ratio. The second is that he had the lowest completion percentage paired with the second lowest yards per completion average. I could understand if he was sacrificing completion percentage for longer completions (Like Zach Mettenbereger) but a low completion percentage shouldn't be coupled with a low yards per completion percentage. The final stat that sticks out to me is that Savage took 43 sacks as a senior. It’s totally fine to wonder whether the offensive line is to blame but with nearly twice as many sacks as any other QB in my top ten you have to think he could have done more to get the ball out of his hands. All in all the numbers don’t look too great.

Top 10 QBs 2013
	COMP	ATT	Comp %	YDS	YDS/CMP	TD	INT	TD/INT	SCK
Teddy Bridgewater	303	427	71.0%	3970	13.1	31	4	7.75	23
Derek Carr	453	659	68.7%	5082	11.2	50	8	6.25	11
Jimmy Garoppolo	375	568	66.0%	5050	13.5	53	9	5.89	19
Aaron Murray	225	347	64.8%	3075	13.7	26	9	2.89	13
Johny Manziel	300	429	69.9%	4114	13.7	37	13	2.85	19
Blake Bortles	259	382	67.8%	3581	13.8	25	9	2.78	21
Zach Mettenbereger	192	296	64.9%	3082	16.1	22	8	2.75	21
Brett Smith	293	467	62.7%	3375	11.5	29	11	2.64	25
David Fales	312	487	64.1%	4189	13.4	33	13	2.54	19
Tom Savage	238	389	61.2%	2958	12.4	21	9	2.33	43
Average	227	342	66.3%	2960	13.0	25.2	7.2	3.52	16.5

Strengths:

After examining Savage’s stats compared to the other top QBs in this draft class it would be perfectly reasonable to wonder why I would have him ranked in the top 10. And in this case there are two very clear answers.

Size- Savage measured in at 6’4” and 228LBs at the scouting combine. His size combined with his strong arm make him hard to ignore. Although guys like Russell Wilson and Drew Brees have shown that small stature can be overcome at the QB position it’s still something that scouts seem to covet at the position.

Arm Strength- The reason teams are overlooking Savage’s lack of production is his arm strength. It’s impossible to miss it. The ball jumps off of his hands. He has the zip to throw the deep outs, comebacks, posts, and seam routes that are essential in most NFL schemes and that’s not something that you can say for all of the top prospects in this class. In the video below you can see Savage make most of the throws that I just mentioned.

Weaknesses:

Pocket Presence- Outside of his accuracy issues my biggest concern with Savage is that he has poor pocket presence. He’s made a habit of getting to the top of his drop and just sitting there. The guys who make it in the NFL understand the importance of climbing the pocket. Sitting at the top of the pocket is bad for a few reasons. First of all when QBs get their momentum moving forward makes it easier to shift their weight forward and make a strong throws. The second reason is that every yard, foot and inch closer to the line of scrimmage the QB is when he releases the ball reduces the distance that the ball has to travel. And when playing against NFL defensive backs that like to jump routes, QBs need to shorten that distance whenever possible. The final reason and probably the most important is that lineman expect their QB to step up into the pocket. The lineman don’t have the luxury of being able to glance back and check to see where their QB is. Tackles are taught to block inside out so when a QB sits at the top of the pocket and the tackles on either side expect him to step up, they may end up pushing a defensive end our outside linebacker right into him. This is exactly what happens on the first play in the video below. Savage makes his drop and sits at the top of the pocket instead of stepping up. The right tackle probably got blamed for the sack but the defensive end would have just gone flying by if Savage would've just stepped up into the pocket. The rest of the plays are more examples of Savage doing the exact same thing but with less dramatic results. I only highlighted a few plays but I would say that he fails to climb the pocket about 65-70% of the time.

Deep Ball accuracy- It’s obvious that accuracy as a whole is an issue for Savage but his struggles with connecting on deep passes is especially noticeable. It’s not just that he misses it’s that he misses different ways every time. One play it’s a bad overthrow and the next play the ball is woefully under-thrown. The video below shows the deep ball miscues from three different games.

Stares Down Receivers- A skill that QBs in the NFL have to develop is the ability to use their eyes to look off coverage. Savage has a tendency to stare down his receivers. It doesn't matter how strong of an arm you have if the defense knows where the ball is going before it’s released. The video below shows two examples of Savage staring down his receiver from the beginning of the play allowing the safety to get a jump on the route and make a play on the ball.  

What to Expect:

 Tom Savage has the size and arm strength to succeed as an NFL QB. He has experience taking snaps from under center which is becoming increasingly rare. He needs some coaching on pocket presence, using his eyes to control the defense and there are a few things about his footwork and setup that definitely need work. But given a couple years to learn a system and get the coaching he needs I could see Savage as a starter in the league or at least a solid backup. At this point there is no way that I would draft him if I was looking for a QB to start right away. That being said, I think as the draft gets closer teams will become more and more intrigued with his blend of size and arm strength and he will ultimately end up being drafted earlier than he should be (probably the third or fourth round).

That’s all for today. Tomorrow I’ll be back with QB #9.

A big thanks to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all the work you guys do compiling prospect video.

4 Late Round Rookies You Should Get to Know

My name is Deverell King. I live in Portland, Oregon where I was born and raised and I have absolutely no credentials as a football scout whatsoever. But I've been a fan of the game for as long as I can remember. And for about the last 5 years I've spent lot of my free time breaking down potential NFL players for fun. And I recently decided that if I'm going to keep spending so much time breaking things down for myself I might as well let someone know what I think. And that's about all you need to know about me. For the foreseeable future I'll spend most of my time here breaking down college and occasionally high school football players and giving my best estimation of what they'll amount to if they get a shot in the league.

But with the first Sunday of the NFL season only hours away I thought I'd start by talking about some guys that will be playing on Sundays this year. There are plenty of websites and bloggers out there with draft grades so i'm not going to get into all of that. Today I'm going to introduce you to four rookies selected in the later rounds of the draft that I think will make a big impact this year and going forward.

1. Bacarri Rambo - Safety - Washington Redskins (Round 6 Pick 23)

The first thing I should say is that i'm a Georgia Bulldogs fan. So call me a homer if you will and i'll completely understand but i'm still going to say what i have to say about this guy.

Much like the offensive line, safety is a position where success is usually measured by the amount of times that a player's name isn't called. Safeties are the last line of defense and there are guys that make careers on being that guy who just doesn't make the big mistake. But while there's a lot to be said for not allowing big plays from the offense, the safeties that you remember are the ones that make big plays of their own. Players like Ed Reed, Sean Taylor and Jarius Byrd. Rambo proved again and again during his college career that he's an impact player that excels at creating turnovers. In his 47 career appearances in college Rambo tallied 16 interceptions, six forced  fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and also scored three touchdowns.

The Redskins selected Rambo in the 6th round with the 191st pick in the draft making him the 17th safety selected. Most sixth round picks have to scratch and claw just to make the 53 man roster. Not only did Rambo make the roster, he's now the starting free safety for a secondary that could showed last season that they could use some reinforcements. The Redskins finished the 2012 regular season as the 30th ranked pass defense. 

So what should you expect to see from Bacarri Rambo as a rookie? Well, you'll see some mistakes that might result in big plays. But you'll definitely also see him force some turnovers and give good support in the run game. But I can say with confidence that by the end of the 2013 season (barring any injury) that Bacarri Rambo will be a household name. 

2. Quinton Patton - Wide Receiver - 49ers (Round 4 Pick 31)

Patton was an extremely productive college player. In two years at Louisana Tech Patton brought in 183 passes for 2,594 yards and 24 touchdowns. Some would argue that Patton's production should be handicapped since he played in Conference USA. But before you scoff at Patton's numbers you should look at his performances against a few schools in more notable conferences. In 2012 against Texas A&M Patton reeled in a whopping 21 catches for 233 yards and four touchdowns. Against Mississippi State in 2011 he caught 11 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. That same season he caught five passes for 67 yards and a touchdown against a solid TCU defense in the Poinsettia Bowl.

When I watch Quinton Patton I see Reggie Wayne. He's not overwhelmingly fast or large but he knows how to create separation and how to make a nice target for his quarterback. Patton's ability to get a clean release from the line of scrimmage is one skill that will give him a leg up over other rookie receivers and may catch some NFL cornerbacks by surprise. 

Look for Patton to take over Marlon Moore's role pretty quickly. Patton should quickly become one of Colin Kaepernick's favorite targets. Kaepernick to Patton is a combo that we should all get used to hearing.

3. Andre Ellington - Running Back - Cardinals (Round 6 Pick 19)

Andre Ellington sits 4th all-time on the Clemson career rushing list. In his time at Clemson Andre Ellington rushed for 3,404 with a 5.2 yards per carry average and 33 touchdowns. He also added 69 receptions for 605 yards and two touchdowns.

Ellington possesses elite speed and agility. The main knock on him coming out of Clemson was his size. Ellington measured in at 5'9" and 199 lbs at the NFL scouting combine. It's fair to question whether a player of his physical stature can handle the beating that any starting NFL running back has to take. And mAybe Ellington won't be a guy that can carry the ball 25 times every game. But how many backs like that are there left in the NFL? I see Ellington as a guy that could handle 15 carries per game with some passes sprinkled in. 

Currently Ellington is listed behind Rahard Mendenhall, Ryan Williams and Stepfan Taylor on the Cardinals depth Chart. But even though he's buried on the depth chart he is clearly the only back on that roster with any big play ability. Ellington has too much talent for the Cardinals to leave him on the bench for too long. Once Mendenhall dances his way into Bruce Arians' doghouse and Ryan Williams inevitably ends up on the injury report, it will be up to the pair of rookies to carry the load. And Ellington is just flat out more talented than Taylor. It may be late this year but Ellington WILL get a shot and when he does he won't disappoint. 

Jordan Mills – Tackle – Chicago Bears (Round 5 Pick 30)

The Chicago bears are loaded with talent on the offensive side of the ball. Jay Cutler has one of the most live arms in the league. Combine that with the Pass catching ability of Brandon Marshall and second year pro Alshon Jeffery and Tight End Martellus Bennett with the impact that a healthy Matt Forte can have and you’ve got what should be an elite NFL offense. The bears biggest problem is and has always been their complete inability to keep Jay Cutler off of his back.

Brandon Mills measured in at 6’5” 319 lbs at the nfl scouting combine. Mills’ balance in pass protection is very impressive. He doesn’t panic against good edge rushers and allow them to run him up the field and cut back inside. He stands his ground and lets the pass rusher try to beat him around the corner and gives them a good shove that sends them flying past the pocket. It’s the little things that Mills seems to excel at and it’s these little things that I think will allow him to excel.

When I watch Mills run block the thing that I notice first is that he has a feel not just for exactly where he needs to move the guy in front of him but also has a feel for what the running back behind him sees. He knows when to turn a guy and how far to turn him. He knows how long to hold a block before trying to get to the second level. And when he knows that all he needs to do is eliminate the guy in front of him…look out because the big guy can move. Mills is starting at right tackle and look for him to be the starter when the season ends.

Look for these guys to all make an impact this season, some earlier than others. In the coming weeks I plan to start getting into some current college players. Thanks for reading.