I'll start by saying that I surprised myself by ranking David Fales this low. When I started this process I had him a bit higher but as I kept going back and watching games for the second and third time he started creeping down the board. In fact it was more a case of other guys moving up the board then Fales moving down but it's all relative now.
Fales moved around a bit before finding a home at San Jose St. University. In his two years at San Jose St. Fales played in 25 games and threw for 8,382 yards, 66 TDs, 22 INTs, with a completion percentage of 68.1%. As a senior Fales threw for 4,189 yards, 33 TDs, 13 INTs, with a completion percentage of 64.1%. For only starting two seasons Fales accumulated some pretty impressive statistics. His career TD/INT ratio of 3:1 is especially impressive. The biggest question that I have is why was there such a large drop off in completion percentage from Fale's junior season to his senior season? His figures for yardage, TDs and INTs were very similar for both seasons so why the big change in completion percentage? Honestly I haven't been able to figure out what changed between his two seasons as the starter. My one thought is that the loss of his two favorite targets during his junior season, Noel Grigsby and Ryan Otten, forced Fales to develop chemistry with a new group of receivers. Grigsby and Otten combined for 129 receptions, 2,049 yards and 13 TDs during Fales' Junior season. So it's understandable that there would be some drop off in productivity. With that, let's take a look at what Fales' strengths and weaknesses are.
Strengths:
Touch- The most impressive aspect of Fales' game is his touch. Fales excels at throwing deep ball and the fade. He's especially effective throwing the back shoulder fade. The back shoulder throw is becoming an essential weapon for Quarterbacks in the NFL. I think that Fales ability in with this throw will be something he'll use early and often during his career.
Intermediate Accuracy- Fales excels at throwing deep in and post routes. While there are questions about Fales' arm strength you would never know it when you see the zip that he can put on these passes.
Intelligence- Fales is a smart guy. He's not going to have any issues learning a new offense or getting through his progression.Whatever teams think he lacks in arm strength he certainly makes up for in this category. Fales isn't going to put his team in bad positions very often and that can be a valuable trait.
Weaknesses:
Arm Strength- I would categorize Fales' arm strength as on the bottom end of average. You're not going to watch him and have visions of Chad Pennington late in his career but you won't confuse him with Jay Cutler either. The important question regarding Fales' arm strength is whether or not he can make the deep out and comeback throws that many offenses rely on? I'm leaning towards no. That's my biggest concern with Fales. Arm strength buys you time in the NFL. Guys like Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford get a split second longer to make decisions than everyone else. Fales isn't going to have that luxury. He'll have to rely on anticipation and timing.
Overview- Fales is a smart passer with above average touch and average arm strength. At worst I think Fales will have a long career as a backup. But I think he'll more than likely he'll get an opportunity as a starter.
Draft Projection: Fales has 3rd-4th round talent and I think he'll be selected no earlier than that.
Thanks again to all of the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you do compiling prospect video.
I'll be back tomorrow with QB #5.
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