Sunday, April 20, 2014

Late Round Running Backs

The day of the 30 carry per game running back has passed. Running backs have short shelve lives and NFL teams are devoting more snaps to the passing game than ever. As a result, wide receivers, tight ends and offensive tackles have all seen the value of their respective positions increase over the last decade. The running back positions haven't been as fortunate. The fullback position is on the endangered species list, but there aren't any NFL wildlife reserves for players built in the mold of Vontae leach. The halfback position will never go the way of the fullback, but teams are starting to understand that you don't need a workhorse running back to have success on offense. More and more teams are going with the platoon strategy at running back. And if a team is going to plan on splitting carries between multiple backs, they can't afford to overpay either of them. So now we're starting to see more and more teams look to find value at running back in the later rounds of the draft. And that's what I want to talk about today. Who are the best running backs that will be drafted on day three (rounds 4-7)? With that, let's get started.

1. Isaiah Crowell (Alabama State)



Isaiah Crowell was ESPN's top ranked running back recruit in 2011 and he ranked fourth overall (behind only Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Johnson, and Cyrus Kouandjio). Crowell played his freshman season at the University of Georgia. During his freshman season Crowell carried the ball 185 times for 850 yards, 5 TDs, and averaged 4.59 yards per carry. Crowell was named SEC freshman of the year. But during the off-season Crowell was arrested on weapons charges. He was pulled over driving a car with three other football players and police found a hand gun with the serial number scratched off. Crowell was immediately dismissed from Georgia. The charges against Crowell were eventually dismissed due to a lack of evidence tying Crowell to the weapon. Crowell transferred to Alabama State and was able to play immediately because Alabama State is not an FBS school. In his two seasons at Alabama State, Crowell carried the ball 329 times for 1,963 yards, 30 TDs, and averaged 5.97 yards per carry. 

Strengths:

Size/Strength- Crowell measured in at 5'11", 224 lbs at the NFL scouting combine. Even as a freshman at Georgia he was very hard to bring down. And he's only gotten stronger. Crowell has the size and strength to carry the ball between the tackles and run over defenders when necessary. He finishes runs the right way.

Agility/Acceleration- Crowell is extremely agile for a back of his size. He makes aggressive cuts that you don't usually see from backs of his size. Crowell has also displayed great acceleration at times. It doesn't take him much time to get up to full speed.

Weaknesses:

Long Speed- Crowell has more than adequate speed to play running back at the NFL level, but he isn't going to outrun most NFL defensive backs in the open field. 

Ball Security- During his freshman season at Georgia, Crowell fumbled the ball four times on 193 touches (once every 48 touches). But during his final season at Alabama State, Crowell only fumbled the ball once with 177 touches so it would appear that Crowell has corrected whatever issues he was having. But the drop in the level of competition might have had a part to play in his improved ball security. 

Overview- In my opinion, Isaiah Crowell is the most talented back in this year's draft. He has first round talent and I think he's just flat out better runner than Carlos Hyde, Bishop Sankey and Jeremy Hill. The big question is whether or not he's going to make good decisions when he's not on the field. But there's no doubting this guys talent. I think he's going to be one of the biggest steals of this draft.


Branden Oliver (Buffalo)




Branden Oliver is fun to watch. He's only 5'8" (if that) and weighs somewhere in the 200 lb to 210 lb range. But he's as quick as they come. The first player that comes to mind when I watch Branden Oliver is Darren Sproles. The second player that comes to mind is Ray Rice. Oliver's physical ability falls somewhere in the middle. He's quicker than Rice but not as strong, and he's stronger than Sproles but not as quick. Either way, he's exciting to watch. 

Oliver played for the University of Buffalo for four seasons. During those four seasons he carried the ball 866 times for 4,049 yards, 33 TDs and averaged 4.68 yards per carry. Oliver also caught 75 passes for 655 yards and a TD. As a senior Oliver carried the ball 310 times for 1,535 yards, 15 TDs, and averaged 4.95 yards per carry. Oliver also caught 25 passes for 173 yards and a TD as a senior. Oliver only played in 7 games as a junior as a result of multiple injuries to his knees.

Strengths: 

Agility/Acceleration- Oliver makes defenders miss in the hole and if he's in the open field 1 on 1, forget about it.  

Strength- During Buffalo's pro day, Oliver did 26 reps of 225 lbs on the bench press. Those 26 reps would've tied Oliver for the second highest total by a running back at the scouting combine. His legs are very strong as well. He continues to churn his legs after contact and gets picks up a lot of extra yards as a result.

Pass Protection- Oliver is an aggressive pass protector. He attacks pass rushers and uses his low center of gravity to his advantage. He has also shown that he can execute cut blocks and chips. This should help him get on the field early in his rookie season.

Weaknesses:

Size- Oliver's weight is more of a concern than his height. There are plenty of successful running backs in the NFL that are short. Ray Rice and MJD are the most recent examples. But Oliver's weight could be a concern. NFL teams will have to decide whether or not he can handle the punishment that NFL running backs receive.

Speed- Oliver has adequate speed but I don't know that he'll bust a lot of long runs up the sideline.

Overview- Branden Oliver possesses elite agility and acceleration. He's built like a bowling ball, low to the ground and dense. I think it would be a mistake to peg him as a third down specialist just because of his size. That might be the quickest way for Oliver to get onto the field. But I think that given the chance, Branden Oliver could do a lot of damage on first and second down as well. He probably won't be selected until the middle of the fifth round at the earliest. If he ends up being selected that late it'll be a steal for one lucky team.


Andre Williams (Boston College)




Andre Williams led the FBS in rushing yards during the 2013-2014 season. Despite his impressive production as a senior, most draft pundits are tagging Williams with late round grades. Williams is a down hill runner with good vision and great power. He reminds me of Alfred Morris. He isn't as flashy as a lot of other running backs but he gets up field quickly and punishes tacklers at the conclusion of his runs. As a senior, Williams carried the ball 355 times for 2,177 yards, 18 TDs, and a 6.13 yard per carry average.

Strengths:

Size/Power- Williams measured in at 5'11" and 230 lbs at the NFL scouting combine. He's a very powerful runner who gets his pads low at impact. Williams is especially hard to bring down because he doesn't waste momentum by trying to move side to side. He gets the ball, makes his read, makes his cut, and gets all of that body weight moving forward. You're not going to see a lot of dancing when Andre Williams has the ball.

Vision/Patience- I kind of mentioned this already, but Williams has good vision which allows him to succeed as a one cut runner. Boston College ran a lot of zone blocked running plays and Williams excelled at making good reads and having the patience for holes to open up for him.

Weaknesses:

Pass Catching- Williams caught 10 passes during his four years at Boston College. Williams will enter the pass happy NFL as an extremely inexperienced pass catcher. That's not to say that he can't develop the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. But at this point, he's a step behind most of the other backs in this draft class.

Agility- Williams will make some defenders miss because they're usually expecting to get run over. But he won't shake too many guys out of their shoes.

Pass Protection- Williams needs to learn to be more aggressive as a pass protector. He has the size to be successful as a pass protector but he's a bit tentative when it comes time to commit to a block. 

Overview- Andre Williams is a one cut, downhill runner that is best suited for a zone blocking scheme. He has the right combination of vision, power, and acceleration to make him dangerous with a good line in front of him. He also has a second gear when he gets into the open field. I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans spent a fifth or sixth round pick on Williams after losing Ben Tate in free agency. They need someone to backup Foster and eventually take over.  


James Wilder Jr. (Florida State)



When Wilder committed to Florida State he was listed as an athlete. They considered playing him at several positions but landed on running back. Wilder measured in at 6'3" 232 lbs at the scouting combine. Wilder is raw as a runner but possesses elite physical stature. Wilder still has a lot of tread left on the tires after splitting time with multiple backs during his career, including Devonta Freeman. During his three seasons at Florida State, Freeman rushed 226 times for 1,363 yards, 20 TDs and a 6.0 yards per carry average.

Strengths:

Size/Strength- I've already mentioned how huge James Wilder is. He's built like a Will Linebacker or a strong safety. The only problem is that he hasn't quite figured how to use his power.

Pass Catching Ability- Wilder has great hands for a running back. Especially a running back of his size. 

Pass Protection- Wilder is a very savvy pass protector. He has the size to take on pass rushers one on one. He understands the importance of chipping as he comes out of the backfield. And he can execute the cut block when necessary but he appears to prefer taking pass rushers head on.

Weaknesses: 

Pad Level- Wilder runs very upright. Eddie George had an amazing career running very upright. Adrian Peterson tends to run upright as well. The thing that both of these backs have in common is that they get their pad level down at impact. Wilder will have to learn to do this if he wants to take advantage of his strength. He has the size and strength to punish defenders at the next level.

Speed- Wilder isn't going to blow anyone away with his speed. He's not a fast very fast and that's a fact.

Overview- James Wilder Jr. is a big, powerful back that can pass protect and catch passes out of the backfield. Wilder's ability as a pass protector and pass catcher will make him an asset on third down immediately. And one he learns to lower his pad level, he could be a weapon on short yardage situations as well as first and second down. Wilder is a unique running back prospect with a lot of upside. At the worst, he'll be a third down back that can contribute on short yardage situations as well as special teams. I would expect to see Wilder come off of the board during the 5th or 6th round.

That's all for now. As always, thanks to the guys at http://draftbreakdown.com for all of the work that you do compiling prospect video.

I'll be back soon with offensive and defensive line.

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