Quarterback Countdown- #1 Teddy Bridgewater- Louisville

Teddy Bridgewater has been taking shots from the media this entire off-season. Bridgewater began his junior season regarded by most as the top college QB in the country without any clear competition. All he did during his junior season was put up his best statistical year yet while leading his team to a 12-1 record (the team's best record in 30 years). You would think Bridgewater's performance this past season would solidify his position as this year's top quarterback. But after Bridgewater's highly criticized pro day performance, it seems like ESPN and NFL Network are determined to knock him down a few notches. But luckily for Mr. Bridgewater, there are still a lot of us who care more about his performance during the actual football season than his performance during the Underwear Olympics (also known as the NFL Scouting Combine) and his pro day. Teddy Bridgewater is still the best quarterback in this draft class and it's not close.

Teddy Bridgewater played in 39 games during his three year career at Louisville. During that time he passed for 9,817 yards, 72 TDs, 24 INTs, with a 68.4% completion percentage. In his final season at Louisville, Bridgewater passed for 3,970 yards, 31 TDs, and 4 INTs, while completing 71.0% of his passes. Bridewater had his best statistical year by far in his final season. His TD/INT ratio of 7.75 to 1 was the best of all my top 10 QBs. Bridgewater's most noteable performance of his junior season came against Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Bridgewater went 35 for 45 for 447 yards, with 3 TDs and no interceptions.

Strengths:

Decision Making/Timing Routes- The most impressive facet of Bridgewater's game is his ability to get through his progression quickly. He not only makes the correct decision, he makes it quickly. On the majority of Bridgewater's drop-backs, he'll hit the last step in the drop, set and fire the ball. This is a testament to Bridgewater's mastery of Louisville's offense and his ability to make a good pre-snap read. Watch the video below and pay attention to how quickly the ball comes out of Bridgewater's hands after he reaches the top of his drop.

Footwork/Pocket Presence- Bridgewater has the best footwork in this draft class by a wide margin. His footwork is precise and deliberate. He gets away from the line quickly, gets a lot of depth, and when he reaches the top of his drop the ball comes out. If there isn't an open receiver, Bridgewater will climb the pocket and wait for a receiver to come open. Most QBs have a tendency to sit at the top of the pocket which makes the job of the left and right tackle a lot more difficult. Offensive tackles expect their QB to step up into the pocket. When an edge rusher tries to use an outside speed rush, tackles are taught to push the rusher past the QB. When the QB sits at the top of the pocket, the tackle may end up pushing the pass rusher directly into the QB. Climbing the pocket also gets the QB's momentum moving forward which adds velocity to the throw and reduces the distance that the ball has to travel. The plays in the video below all illustrate how comfortable Bridgewater is operating inside of the pocket.

Eye Control- Bridgewater understands how to use his eyes to manipulate the defense. He routinely uses his eyes to move safeties and linebackers. This is an extremely important tool to have at the pro level. You can see examples of this in the video below.

Throwing on the Run- After Bridgewater's pro day there were a lot of questions being raised about his ability to make accurate throws on the run. Kurt Warner and Mike Mayock went to town talking about how poor Bridgewater's throwing motion was on the run. If you go back and watch Bridgewater make these throws during an actual game, your doubts will be put to rest. See the video below.

Touch- Teddy has great touch. He's not quite on the level of Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo but he can drop the ball in when he needs to.

Weaknesses:

Deep Ball Accuracy- This is the only area of Bridgewater's game that really concerns me. He hasn't shown the type of chemistry with his receivers down the field that you would like to see out of a top QB prospect. Ryan Tanehill exhibited the same inability during college and it has continued to be an issue for him as pro. Teams will have to take a closer look at this in private workouts to determine whether or not they think this can be fixed.

Ball Security- Much like Manziel, Bridgewater has a tendency to hold the ball with one hand when he starts to scramble. Luckily Bridgewater doesn't scramble nearly as much as Manziel. This isn't a huge issue because Bridgewater keeps two hands on the ball whenever he's in the pocket. But it's something teams should keep an eye out for.

Overview:

Teddy Bridgewater is the best QB in this draft class, right now. His football IQ and work ethic are his biggest assets. He doesn't have prototypical size or arm strength but he more than makes up for these deficiencies with the strengths that I just mentioned. Derek Carr has the most upside of any QB in the 2014 class but Bridgewater is the most pro-ready. I think Bridgewater will be able to step in and start immediately.

Draft Projection- 1st Overall. Let me point out that this is where I think Bridgewater should be selected. With the way that things are going, I think Teddy will come off of the board between pick 5 and pick 8. But if the Texans do pass on Teddy Bridgewater for Blake Bortles, they will be regretting it for quite some time.

That's all for now. I'm thinking that I'll move on to profiling some receivers next but we'll see what happens.

And thanks again to everyone at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you guys to compiling prospect video.

Quarterback Countdown- #2 Derek Carr- Fresno St.

 Derek Carr has the most upside of any quarterback in this year's draft class. He has elite arm strength, arm strength comparable to Matt Stafford and Jay Cutler. In fact, Derek Carr reminds me of Cutler quite a bit. Both have a similar build, electric arms, above average athleticism and both are fierce competitors. And like Jay Cutler, Derek Carr is a bit inconsistent. Before I get into Carr's strength's and weaknesses, let's look at his stats.

Carr played in 44 games in his four years at Fresno State. Carr passed for 12,843 yards, 113 TDs, 24 INTs and completed 66.7% of his passes. In his final season as a Bulldog, Carr passed for 5,083 yards, 50 TDs, 8 INTs and completed 68.9% of his passes. During his senior season, Carr ranked third in completion percentage and last in yards per completion among my top 10 quarterbacks. Fresno State's offense substituted run plays with screens. So naturally Carr's completion percentage was boosted while his yards per completion average was pulled down. Despite the fact that the vast majority of Carr's passes were short, he definitely has the ability to push the ball down the field. In fact, that might be Carr's greatest strength.

Strengths:

Deep Ball Accuracy- Like I said before, Derek Carr can push the ball down the field. He has the arm strength to drive the ball deep and he's accurate when he does. Watch the video below and keep an eye on how far the ball travels in the air. Derek Carr is going to give secondaries fits.

Touch-  In addition to having the best arm in this years draft class, Carr might also have the best touch. His ability to float the ball in on corner routes and fades is really impressive. It makes him deadly in the redzone. His ability to fit the ball in between the defender and the sideline is second to none. He just picks out the single coverage and lets the ball go. Watch the video below to see examples of Carr's touch.

Arm Strength- Carr has the velocity to make all of the deep out, comeback and dig throws that most NFL teams need their quarterbacks to make.

Mobility- Carr has above average athletic ability for a quarterback. He's no RGIII but he can move when you give him an opportunity.

Leadership- Derek Carr is a competitor. He's a vocal leader and he commands the attention of his teammates when he speaks. Carr's charisma and fire will help him win over the veterans on whatever team he goes to. He'll be the guy firing his teammates up before a game and he'll let them know if he thinks they aren't giving their best effort. His personality reminds me of a combination of Drew Brees and Jay Cutler. Not bad guys to be compared to.

Weaknesses:

Footwork- I watched 479 of the throws that Carr made this past season. Of those 479 snaps, Carr took one snap from under center. Carr will have to learn to play the position from under center which isn't that uncommon these days for college QBs transitioning to the pros. The bigger concern for me is the inconstancy in Carr's footwork. He has a tendency to let his feet get too close together. Once his feet are close together he uses a crow-hop to get his weight going forward. Other times he never shifts his weight forward and gets away with it because his arm is so strong. This inconstancy leads to inaccuracy. For Carr to reach his full potential he'll need to work on having consistent footwork.

Pocket Presence- Carr has a tendency to sit at the top of the pocket. It's a common problem and can be easily remedied.  But it's something that could get him in trouble if he doesn't address it. Quarterbacks who sit at the top of the pocket open themselves up for to more sacks and fumbles.

Overview:

Derek Carr is the most exciting quarterback in this draft class. His arm strength and touch allow him to attack every part of the field and that's valuable. When you pair that ability with his leadership and competitive fire, you get an elite talent with a ceiling as high as you can imagine. If Carr goes to a team where he isn't thrown into the fire immediately, I think he'll be very successful and we'll see him competing for rings for years to come.

Draft Projection- Pick 15-20- Carr has work to do with his mechanics but his ability is impossible to ignore. I think a team will fall in love with him and either trade up or trade back to take him here.

Thanks again to everyone at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work that you do putting together prospect video.

I'll be back soon with QB# 1, Teddy Bridgewater.

Quarterback Countdown- #3 Blake Bortles- Central Florida

There is a very good chance that Blake Bortles will be the first player selected in the 2014 draft. So why do I have Bortles ranked as my # 3 QB? Well that's a good question and I fully intend to explain. At the end of the 2012-2013 season it seemed impossible to imagine any quarterback other than Teddy Bridgewater being the first off of the board at the QB position. But scouts and critics have been chiseling away at Bridgewater's draft stock as is always the case with any top prospect playing in their final season. And with scouts raising questions about Bridgewater's potential, the door was opened for other passers to take the top spot among this class of QBs. Blake Bortles has done his best to seize that top spot including winning the head to head match up between the two signal callers. Bortles has prototypical size at 6'5" and 232 Lbs and can make plays with his legs. And what I keep hearing more and more about Bortles is that scouts and coaches think hthat he has the most upside out of the entire QB class. I disagree. That being said, I do think that Bortles has a great deal of potential as an NFL QB.

Bortles played in 37 games over three years at Central Florida. During that time Bortles passed for 7,598 yards, 56TDs, 19 INTs and a completion percentage of 65.7%. As a Junior he passed for 3,581 yards, 25 TDs, 9 INTs and 67.8% completion percentage. Bortles ranked 4th in completion percentage and second in yards per completion out of my top 10 quarterbacks. As a senior Bortles also rused for 272 yards and 6 TDs.

Strengths:

Reading Coverage/Using Eyes- Blake Bortles' ability to use his eyes to control opposing safeties and linebackers is top notch. He does a good job of diagnosing the coverage pre-snap and uses his eyes to pull the safety away from his intended target. Bortles is one of three QB prospects in this draft class that excels in this area. The video below illustrates Bortles' ability to use his eyes.

Touch- Bortles has shown the ability to apply touch to deep balls and intermediate passes. For a quarterback with Bortles' size this is impressive. Often times, larger quarterbacks struggle with touch because they naturally have more velocity on their passes. Bortles has the ability to take off as much velocity as needed to drop passes into tight spaces. Watch the video below to see examples of Bortles' touch.

Athleticism-Blake Bortles has exceptional athletic ability for a guy his size. Bortles has been compared to Cam Newton and Andrew Luck in terms of the combination of size and athleticism at the quarterback position. Those comparisons are a bit of a reach but Bortles is still very athletic for the position.

Weaknesses:

Footwork- I watched 174 of the passes that Blake Bortles threw during his senior season. 172 of those 174 snaps were taken from the shotgun. Bortles will have to learn to take snaps from under center and learn to make reads as he takes his drop. This is becoming a very common reality for college QBs making the transition to the pros as the number of college teams taking most snaps from the shotgun increases.

Release- Bortles has a prolonged release at times. He has a tendancy to let the ball dip far below his elbow, sometimes as low as his waist in a long, looping throwing motion. Bortles will need to shorten his throwing motion if he wants to succeed in the league. The split second that the looping motion adds to Bortles' delivery is all that NFL defensive backs need to make a break on the ball and take it the other way for six points. And pass rusher love to see QBs let the ball drop down low. NFL pass rushers understand how to jar the ball loose and given the smallest opportunity to do so, they'll take advantage.

Arm Strength- Blake Bortles is a big quarterback. Usually big quarterbacks have big arms. But when Bortles winds up and tries to throw a laser, I feel like his attempt at a fastball comes put looking like a change-up. There's a bunch of arm and body action but the ball comes out at half speed. I'm not sure what is causing it but it's definitely a concern. I definitely can't say that Bortles has elite arm strength. I don't even know that I can say that Bortles has above average arm strength.

Overview: Blake Bortles is a big, athletic quarterback who can manipulate the defense with his eyes. Bortles doesn't have elite arm strength or a quick release but his understanding of the defense that he's facing allows him to succeed. I think with some coaching on his mechanics, Bortles can be a very successful starting quarterback in the NFL. The thing that I disagree with most is the idea that Blake Bortles has the most upside out of all of the QBs in this year's class. The quarterback with the most upside in this class is my number two QB.

Draft Projection- Top 5-I don't think that Bortles should be selected before either of my to two QBs, who I'm sure you can guess at this point. But I think Bortles will be able to start immediately.

I'll be back soon with QB#2.

Thanks to all of the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you do putting together prospect video.

Quarterback Countdown- #4 Jimmy Garoppolo- Eastern Illinois

No player has ascended further up NFL draft boards this off-season than Jimmy Garoppolo. Despite his prolific stats this past season, most people considered Jimmy Garoppolo to be a 3rd-4th round talent. In the past few weeks I've seen him projected as high as the late first round. Garoppolo is an especially intriguing prospect because he attended such a small school. The football program at Eastern Illinois is probably most famous for producing Dallas Cowboys' Quarterback, Tony Romo. Naturally there have been quite a few comparisons made between the two. And there are definitely some similarities between the two passers. But before I get into that let's examine Garoppolo's collegiate performance.

Garoppolo played in 45 games during his 4 years at Eastern Illinois. During that time he passed for 13,156 yards, 118 TDs, 51 INTs and a 62.8% completion percentage. Garoppolo put up the best numbers of his career this past season as a senior. Garoppolo passed for 5,050 yards, 53 TDs, 9 INTs and a completion percentage of 66.0%. With a TD/INT ratio of nearly six to one, Garoppolo ranked 3rd among my top 10 quarterbacks in touchdown to interception ratio. But Garopppolo's statistical dominance comes with a caveat. Eastern Illinois is an FCS team, so Garopppolo didn't face the same caliber of opponent that the other top quarterbacks in this draft class faced during their careers. That being said, Garoppolo lead the FCS in passing yards as a senior. Regardless of the level of competition that Garoppolo faced, he made the best of it.

Strengths:

Reading Coverage/Using Eyes and Pump Fakes- The part of Garoppolo's game that impresses me the most is his ability to manipulate defensive backs and linebackers with his eyes and pump fakes. In fact, this is one of the similarities between Garoppolo and Tony Romo. Romo uses the pump fake more than any other QB in the NFL. But back to Garoppolo. At the collegiate level you don't see a lot of QBs use the pump fake because most quarterbacks have a hard enough time using their eyes to look off the defense. The way I like to judge a QB's ability to read/manipulate the defense is by answering a couple of questions. First, can the QB read the defense once the ball is snapped? Second, can a QB read the defense pre-snap? Third, can the QB use his eyes to manipulate the defense. And finally, does the QB use the pump fake to manipulate the defense? With Garoppolo it's easy for me to answer yes to every question. At this point in his career, Jimmy Garoppolo has already exhibited an elite ability to read and manipulate defenses. The video below is a compilation of plays in which Garoppolo displays this ability. Keep an eye on the reactions that linebackers and safeties have to his pump fakes. Also keep an eye on the position of the safeties once the ball is delivered.

Touch- Jimmy Garoppolo has repeatedly shown the ability to deliver passes with touch. He does a great job of putting just enough air on his deep passes to allow the receiver to run under the ball and catch it in stride. He also excels at dropping passes in between zone coverage. Watch the video below to see examples of the touch that i'm talking about.

Quick Release- Another similarity between Garoppolo and Romo is that they both have a very compact release. The ball stays high throughout the throwing motion which reduces both unnecessary movement and the amount of time that it takes the ball to get out of the hands. In addition to his compact throwing motion, Garoppolo's quick decision making helps get the ball out of his hands quickly. You can watch examples of this in the video below.

Weaknesses: 

Inexperienced Against Elite Competition- Garoppolo just hasn't played enough against top tier athletes to know how he'll handle the speed. Every QB making the transition from college to the pros has to adjust to the increased speed of the game.There will just just be a larger adjustment for Garoppolo than most.

Footwork- Out of the 180 throws that I watched Garoppolo make from the 2013 season, 166 (92.2%) of the snaps were taken from the shotgun. Garoppolo will have to learn to take snaps from under center and work on the footwork that comes with it. The other thing that Garoppolo will have to learn is to make post-snap reads while taking his drop. Like I said above, Garoppolo excels at reading the defense. But he has always read the defense from the shotgun. The change in perspective may take some time to adjust to. But there is no indication that Garoppolo should have trouble making the adjustment.

Overview:

Jimmy Garoppolo will continue to ascend draft board up until draft day. His ability to read and manipulate defenses is extremely developed for a college QB. The biggest question surrounding Garoppolo will continue to be whether or not he can continue to succeed against NFL caliber talent? I think that he will.

Draft Projection- Late 1st Round- Jimmy Garoppolo is a first round talent and team are beginning to realize that. I think that the Jaguars, Browns and Vikings re all candidates. The Vikings and Jaguars would have to either trade up from the second round or trade back from the first. The Browns are sitting in the perfect position to select Garoppolo if they are interested. Regardless of which team selects him, we should see Jimmy Garoppolo come off of the board in the late first round.

Thanks as always to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you do compiling prospect video.

I'll be back soon with QB #3.

Quarterback Countdown- #5 Zack Mettenberger- LSU

Zach Mettenberger measured in at 6'5" and 224 at the scouting combine. He's a big guy, with a bigger arm and a lot of potential. Before tearing his ACL and spraining his MCL against Arkansas, Mettenberger was considered by some to be a potential first round pick. He suffered the injury in late November. He wasn't able to have surgery on his ACL until early in January because doctors wanted to wait for his MCL to heal. So it's very surprising to hear that Mettenberger plans to throw for scouts on March 27th at LSUs Pro Day, not even 4 months after his surgery. In addition to being a testament to Mettenberger's work ethic, being ready to throw at this point  should give teams hope that he'll be ready to play sooner than later. With that in mind, let's talk about some numbers.

Zach Mettenberger started his college career with the Georgia Bulldogs. After some off the field issues as a Freshman he was kicked off of the team and had to go play junior college ball. After a year playing JUCO ball Mettenberger transferred to LSU. As a senior Mettenberger passed for 3,082 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs and a completion percentage of 64.9%. Of my top 10 QBs, Mettenberger ranked 6th in completion percentage and 1st in yards per completion during his senior season. Mettenburger's yards per completion average was 16.1. The next closest QB was Blake Bortles with a 13.8 yard average. This is a testament to Mettenberger's ability to work the ball down the field.

Strengths:

Arm Strength- I remember hearing a story while Georgia was recruiting Mettenberger about him shattering one of his receivers eye sockets with a ball that he fired a little too hard on a slant. I didn't believe the story at first but then I watched Mettenberger in Georgia's spring game. I remember thinking after the game that his receiver with the shattered eye socket was lucky that his head was still attached. Mettenberger has a howitzer attached to his right shoulder. Watching him throw is like watching Usain Bolt run a 100 meter dash. Everyone else looks like they're running as hard as they can while Bolt looks like he's taking a jog. That's what Mettenberger's arm strength is like. There's not a lot of arm or body action but the ball comes out hot. I think all of his receivers would describe his passes ass heavy. He throws the type of ball that'll take you along for a ride if your feet aren't on the ground when it hits your hands. Aside from Derek Carr, Mettenberger has the strongest arm of in this years draft class. He can make the deep out and comeback throws effortlessly. Watch the video below to see the arm strength that I'm talking about.

Deep Ball Accuracy- Mettenberger has proved that he can connect on deep passes. He's a bit inconsistent with his setup and trajectory but he gets the ball into his receiver's hands. When he's under center teams have to respect his ability to go deep. That's something that will make him valuable immediately. With some coaching I think he could become an elite deep ball passer.

Pocket Presence/Footwork- Mettenberger took a lot of snaps from under center at LSU. Certainly a lot more than most college QBs do these days. For such a big guy, Mettenberger does a great job of getting away from center quickly and creating space between himself and his offensive line. He needs to start climbing the pocket more consistently. He stands tall in the pocket and isn't afraid of pressure. He routinely steps into throws even though he knows he's going to take a hit. For a guy that isn't going to make a lot of defenders miss, this is an important trait. Luckily Mettenberger has the size to absorb a lot of hits.

Awareness-Mettenberger always has the down, distance, field position, score and amount of time left on the clock running through his mind. He knows when a play is dead. He throws the ball away when he knows a play isn't going to work. He'll tuck the ball away and fight for a yard or two if it means staying in field goal range. It' not something that people will talk about much, but this is one of Mettenberger's biggest assets.

Weaknesses:

Mobility- Zach Mettenberger probably hasn't won too many footraces in his life. He's a big guy and he moves like one. The thing that concerns me about his lack of mobility is that he struggles with throwing on the run. It just means that teams will have to give him enough time to get the ball off because he's not going to make a lot of plays when he's forced to improvise. You can see some examples of Mettenberger throwing on the run in the video below.

Touch- It's pretty common for big, strong, Quarterbacks to struggle with touch. Mettenberger flashes the ability to put touch on the ball at times but in the 10 games I watched from his senior season, he seemed to struggle with putting touch on the ball more often than not. It's a skill he'll need to improve as he continues to develop as a QB. You can see what I mean in the video below.

Overview:

Zach Mettenberger is a big, strong armed quarterback, who makes good decisions. He needs to develop the ability to use his eyes to manipulate the defense. He also needs to work on getting the ball out of his hands on timing throws. But the guy has too much talent for those things to keep him off of the field. Zach Mettenberger will be a starter in the NFL and he'll be successful.

Draft Projection-  Late 2nd-Early 3rd Round- Before the injury Mettenberger might have been a late first round pick. I think he has second round talent but the injury and off the field issues are a concern. Assuming Mettenberger is done getting in trouble and that he stays healthy, whoever selects him will be getting great value.

Quarterback Countdown- #6 David Fales- San Jose St.

I'll start by saying that I surprised myself by ranking David Fales this low. When I started this process I had him a bit higher but as I kept going back and watching games for the second and third time he started creeping down the board. In fact it was more a case of other guys moving up the board then Fales moving down but it's all relative now.

Fales moved around a bit before finding a home at San Jose St. University. In his two years at San Jose St. Fales played in 25 games and threw for 8,382 yards, 66 TDs, 22 INTs, with a completion percentage of 68.1%. As a senior Fales threw for 4,189 yards, 33 TDs, 13 INTs, with a completion percentage of 64.1%. For only starting two seasons Fales accumulated some pretty impressive statistics. His career TD/INT ratio of 3:1 is especially impressive. The biggest question that I have is why was there such a large drop off in completion percentage from Fale's junior season to his senior season? His figures for yardage, TDs and INTs were very similar for both seasons so why the big change in completion percentage? Honestly I haven't been able to figure out what changed between his two seasons as the starter. My one thought is that the loss of his two favorite targets during his junior season, Noel Grigsby and Ryan Otten, forced Fales to develop chemistry with a new group of receivers. Grigsby and Otten combined for 129 receptions, 2,049 yards and 13 TDs during Fales' Junior season. So it's understandable that there would be some drop off in productivity. With that, let's take a look at what Fales' strengths and weaknesses are.

Strengths:

Touch- The most impressive aspect of Fales' game is his touch. Fales excels at throwing deep ball and the fade. He's especially effective throwing the back shoulder fade. The back shoulder throw is becoming an essential weapon for Quarterbacks in the NFL. I think that Fales ability in with this throw will be something  he'll use early and often during his career.

Intermediate Accuracy- Fales excels at throwing deep in and post routes. While there are questions about Fales' arm strength you would never know it when you see the zip that he can put on these passes.

Intelligence- Fales is a smart guy. He's not going to have any issues learning a new offense or getting through his progression.Whatever teams think he lacks in arm strength he certainly makes up for in this category. Fales isn't going to put his team in bad positions very often and that can be a valuable trait.

Weaknesses:

Arm Strength- I would categorize Fales' arm strength as on the bottom end of average. You're not going to watch him and have visions of Chad Pennington late in his career but you won't confuse him with Jay Cutler either. The important question regarding Fales' arm strength is whether or not he can make the deep out and comeback throws that many offenses rely on? I'm leaning towards no. That's my biggest concern with Fales. Arm strength buys you time in the NFL. Guys like Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford get a split second longer to make decisions than everyone else. Fales isn't going to have that luxury. He'll have to rely on anticipation and timing.

Overview- Fales is a smart passer with above average touch and average arm strength. At worst I think Fales will have a long career as a backup. But I think he'll more than likely he'll get an opportunity as a starter.

Draft Projection: Fales has 3rd-4th round talent and I think he'll be selected no earlier than that.

Thanks again to all of the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you do compiling prospect video.

I'll be back tomorrow with QB #5.

Quarterback Countdown- #7 Johnny Manziel- Texas A&M

He’s been the most exciting player to watch in college football for the last two years. He’s a Sportscenter regular for his plays on and off of the field. He’s got the height of slot receiver, hands the size of a defensive end and he plays with Micky Ward vs. Arturo Gatti caliber heart. He views turnovers as a necessary evil and pocket presence as luxury. He’s simultaneously astounding and confounding. He makes a habit of taking leaps forward only to take bounds back. He’s an ankle breaking, Heisman winning, rule violating, ticket selling machine in the flesh. Put more simply, he’s Johnny Football.

And then there’s that Johnny Manziel guy too…

This Johnny Manziel guy from what I can tell is a semi-competent pocket passer from Tyler, Texas. He’s a QB that flashes touch, above average arm strength and an ability to get the ball out of his hands relatively quickly at times. This Manziel character appears to be coachable even. The problem is that you never know how much Manziel you’re going to get before Johnny Football takes over. And once Johnny Football takes over there’s no way of knowing what he’s going to do.  From what I can tell Johnny football seems to appear whenever Manziel senses any sort of pressure whatsoever. Beyond that, modern science has been unable to explain what activates the transformation.

All jokes aside, I’m sure I've lost whatever sliver of credibility I might have had by ranking Johnny Football as my #7 quarterback. But before you completely write me off at least give me a chance to explain. Let’s start with the numbers.

Manziel played in 26 games in his two years as a starter for Texas A&M. During his 2 year career he threw for 7,820 yards with 63 TDs, 22 INTs with a 68.9% completion percentage while rushing for 2,169 yards and 30 TDs. in his final season at A&M he threw for 4,114 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs with a completion percentage of 69.9% while rushing for 759 yards and 9 TDs. Of my top ten quarterbacks Manziel ranked 2^nd in completion percentage and 3^rd in yards per completion for the 2013 season. Manziel was the only QB in my top 10 to finish in the top 3 in both of these categories. Ranking that high in both categories would indicate that Manziel is not only accuratein general but accurate throwing the ball down the field. All of this is impressive and only supports Manziel’s 1^st round aspirations. So why am I such a non-believer? Well…… it’s kind of a long story but I’ll do my best to keep it brief.

I was mostly joking with the idea that Johnny Manziel and Johnny Football are different people but when I watch the guy play I feel like there are two separate QBs that you have to evaluate. There’s the guy that shows up when the pressure is on and starts running in circles (very nice circles mid you) and then there’s the guy that makes throws from inside the pocket. Both do things well and not so well but I think in order to give an honest evaluation of Manziel you have to understand both sides. So with that in mind I’m going to go about this a little differently than usual. First I’ll highlight the strengths and weaknesses of his game outside of the pocket (AKA Johnny Football). Then I’ll walk you through what I think about the guy that plays from inside the pocket (AKA Johnny Manziel).

Johnny Football

Strengths:

Athleticism/Throwing on the Run- I don’t really need to say too much here. We've all seen what Johnny Football can do with his legs. And his ability to make throws on the run is equally as impressive. You've all probably seen most of these plays but just for fun let’s watch some of it again. Check out the video below.

Weaknesses:

Decision Making- Sometimes it’s passing up an easy throw for a first down and electing to run instead. Other times it’s was throwing the ball up to a group of WRs and DBs like they were playing a game of 500. And sometimes it’s getting called for intentional grounding instead of just taking a sack. But that bonehead play is always around the corner with Johnny Football. And in the words of Nobel Laureate poet Trinidad James, “Don’t believe me just watch” the video below.

Ball Security- I’d say that Manziel carries the ball like a loaf of bread but I’ve never known anyone to be that careless with a loaf of bread. The term “tuck it and run” doesn’t apply to Manziel because he doesn’t ever tuck the ball away. Part of the problem is that Manziel has huge hands especially for a guy his size. He’s overconfident in his ability to hold on to the ball and it shows. Combine this with his belief that he can make any throw and you’ve got a turnover machine in the making. This is definitely something that can be coached but it’s a habit that will give coaches and fans fits.

Johnny Manziel

Strengths:

Touch- Manziels’s biggest asset from inside the pocket is his touch. He’s shown the ability to drop passes over the top on deep balls as well as the ability to hang back shoulder throws up for his receivers just out of reach of the defensive backs or line backers covering them. Manziel’s ability to connect on deep balls is impressive because it’s something that even good pocket passers struggle with. Even Aaron Rodgers was criticized coming out of Cal for his inability to connect on deep passes. This is the one area as a pocket passer where Manziel is ahead of the game. Watch the video below to see the type of touch that Manziel possesses.

Weaknesses:

Reading Coverage/Staring Down Receivers- Quarterbacks go through a few stages of being able to read coverage. The first stage is being able to recognize a coverage post-snap once the defenders declare their intentions. The second stage is being able to identify a coverage pre-snap. And finally, after being able to diagnose a coverage pre-snap a quarterback has to learn to use his eyes to manipulate the coverage from the moment he gets to the line of scrimmage until the ball leaves his hands. Johnny Manziel struggles with the very first stage of this progression. In the video below you’ll see Manziel fail to diagnose coverage pre-snap, post snap in addition to seeing him stare down receivers from the time the ball is snapped.

Pocket Presence- Manziel, like several other quarterbacks in this draft class, has a tendency to sit at the top of the pocket instead of climbing it. Sitting at the top of the pocket is bad for a few reasons. First of all when QBs get their momentum moving forward it makes it easier to shift their weight forward and deliver strong throws. The second reason is that every yard, foot and inch closer to the line of scrimmage the QB is when he releases the ball reduces the distance that the ball has to travel. And when playing against NFL defensive backs that like to jump routes, QBs need to shorten that distance whenever possible. The final reason and probably the most important is that linemen expect their QB to step up into the pocket. The linemen don’t have the luxury of being able to glance back and check to see where their QB is. Tackles are taught to block inside out so when a QB sits at the top of the pocket and the tackles on either side expect him to step up, they may end up pushing a defensive end our outside linebacker right into him. If Manziel is going to be successful as a pocket passer then there will definitely have to be some coaching done in this area.

Bottom Line:

At the end of the day there are two questions that teams will need to answer about Manziel. The First question is whether or not Manziel can win consistently playing the way that he does currently? Can he play like Michael Vick did when he had early success in Atlanta? The second question is whether or not Manziel can be coached into playing like a traditional pocket passer? And if the developmental route for Manziel is a team’s plan is that worth a first round pick?

It’s clear to me that Manziel is at his best when he’s improvising. When he’s confined to the pocket Maziel looks down right average. He has average arm strength, above average touch and a below average cognitive abilities from within the pocket. And I don’t think that style of play is conducive to continued success as a quarterback in the NFL.

Draft Projection- 3^rd-4^th round. Honestly I think that a 3^rd round pick is too much. But my projection is irrelevant because Johnny Manziel’s hype machine has been hard at work for far too long. He’ll probably end up going in the top ten but I truly believe that if a team takes Manziel that early they will end up regretting it for years to come. He’ll win a few games early on while teams adjust to his strengths, but in the end they’ll figure out how to contain him and that will be the end of that.

The last thing I’ll say is that there should NEVER be this level of uncertainty surrounding a first round pick let alone a top 5 pick. If there’s a franchise that’s willing to risk an early pick on him then they’re truly meant to be together.

I’ll be back soon with QB #6.

Thanks again to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all of the work you do compiling video.

Quarterback Countdown- #8 Aaron Murray- Georgia

I’m a Bulldogs fan so this one hits close to home. Aaron Murray started for four years for my Bulldogs and while he managed to end his career with more yards than any other QB in SEC history he never seemed to be able to win the big game. Despite his inability to win when it counts Murray seemed to be pretty locked in to at least a 3^rd round pick but then he tore his ACL against Kentucky in November. The injury has thrown Murray’s draft-stock into a tailspin. Murray plans to be ready to throw at Georgia’s April 16^th pro day. A strong pro day is going to be essential if Murray wants to regain his former standing in the eyes of NFL scouts.

During his 4 year career Murray passed for 13,166 yards, 121 TDs, 41 INTs with a completion percentage of 62.3%. As a senior Murray threw for 3,075 yards, 26 TDs, 9 INTs and a completion percentage of 64.8%. Murray ranked 8^th in completion percentage out of my top ten QBs and 4^th in yards per completion. Murray ranked 9^th in completion percentage out of my top 10 QBs during the 2013 season but ranked 4^th in yards per completion. Those numbers are a reflection of Georgia’s offense pushing the ball down the field.

Strengths:

Arm Strength- Murray has above average arm strength and it shows on post routes and deep in routes. Murray has the arm strength to make the deep out and comeback throws that many NFL teams ask their QBs to make. See the video below.

Touch- Murray appears to have above average touch. He has the ability to drop passes in between zone coverage and has good control on deep balls. See the video below.

Footwork- Murray has consistent footwork and quickly gets his weight shifted before hitting the top of his drop.

Weaknesses:

Decision Making/Reading Coverage- Murray has a hard time reading coverage. He has an especially hard time identifying underneath coverage. He has a tendency to lock in on his receiver which DBs and LBs pick up on very quickly. He stares down his receiver, a DB or LB peels off his underneath coverage and gets an easy pick. It happens way too frequently. There are plenty of examples in the video below.

Release-Murray’s release is a bit loopy. The ball dips down below his elbow before coming returning to the position that it should be in before beginning to move forward. Murray is very coachable so I’m sure that it’s something that can be fixed at the next level. It will need to be addressed to reduce the chance of fumbles.

Overview:

Aaron Murray is going to make it in the NFL. I’m not sure if it will be as a starter or a backup but he’s going to make it. He’s a short pocket passer with above average arm strength, mobility and touch. Murray really has one thing that he needs to focus on improving and that’s his ability to read defenses. Murray really struggled with identifying coverage at the collegiate level and it gets a lot more difficult in the pros. He’ll need to sit for at least a year but when he learns how to use read defenses quickly and use his eyes he can definitely start in the league. The question is which teams think that they can coach him up and how long it will take. Aaron never lived up to his full potential at Georgia and I think he knows that. Over the next few months people will knock Murray for never winning big game, his height and the health of his knee. The bottom line is that the team that drafts him will be getting a player that competes on every play. At some point he’ll get a shot as a starter.

Draft Projection- 4^th round. Murray has too much ability to last any longer than the 4^th round unless teams are concerned about his knee. I could see a team taking him in the third if they fall in love with him.

That’s all for now. 

Thanks again to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all the work you do compiling prospect video.

I’ll be back soon with QB #7.

Quarterback Countdown- #9 Brett Smith - Wyoming

Brett Smith played in 35 games during his 3 seasons at the University of Wyoming.  He finished his career with 8,834 yards, 76 TDs, 28 INTs and a completion percentage of 61.9% while rushing for 1,529 yards and 20 TDs. In his final season at Wyoming Smith passed for 3,375 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs with a completion percentage of 62.7% while rushing for 571 yards and 4 TDs. In the table below (which is sorted by completion percentage) you can see that among my top 10 QBs, Smith ranked 9^th in completion percentage and 9^th in yards per completion.  The combination of a low completion percentage and low yards per completion average is worrisome but in a moment I’ll explain why it doesn't worry me with Smith as much as it does with my #10 QB Tom Savage.

Strengths:

Decision Making- What I like most about Brett Smith is his ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s able to do this for a few reasons. The first is that he does a good job of reading coverage before the ball is snapped. The second reason is that he has great anticipation. The third reason is that he has developed chemistry with his receivers which isn't something that all college QBs end up doing. It takes time for a QB to build chemistry with his receivers but it also takes dedication and the ability to communicate. All of these factors come into play in determining whether or not a QB gets the ball out quickly. Seeing the way that Smith routinely gets the ball out before his receivers make their breaks along with the fact that his receivers are ready for the ball gives me confidence that he will be able to build chemistry with receivers at the next level which is one of the most important aspects of being an NFL QB. The video below is a compilation of plays in which Smith shows his ability to get the ball out quickly.

Athleticism- What might be more impressive than Smith’s ability to get the ball out quickly is what he has the ability to do when there isn't anyone open immediately. People praise Johnny Manziel for his ability to make plays outside of the pocket and on the run and when I watch Brett Smith I see a lot of the same ability. Smith doesn’t possess the same level of agility as Manziel but he has similar top end speed and more importantly he understands when to use his athleticism. The video below should give you a feel for the type of plays Brett Smith can make with his feet.

Weaknesses:

Arm Strength/Deep Accuracy- Smith just flat out doesn't have the type of arm strength that starting quarterbacks in the NFL usually possess. I was only able to watch four of his games but during those games he was rarely asked to throw deep outs and comebacks. Part of that is probably because it isn't a big part of their offense but the bigger reason is that he can’t produce the velocity necessary to make those throws routinely.  And his lack of deep ball accuracy seems to be a product of the fact that he has  to really put everything into the ball and loses touch.

Mechanics- Smith has an inconsistent delivery that is different than most QBs.  It seems to change depending on the depth of the route. It’s more compact on shorter throws which allows him to get the ball out quickly. Coaches may try to change his throwing mechanics but I don’t think it’s necessary. The only reason I list it as a weakness is that I think he may be able to make some adjustments to add touch to his deep ball.

Overview- Brett Smith will not be a starting QB in the NFL. He does a few things really well unfortunately the one thing he really struggles with (arm strength) isn't something that he can really improve. That being said, I think he could have a very successful career as a backup. Smith’s ability to get the ball out quickly makes him a good fit for a lot of west coast offenses. Smith’s has the ability to establish chemistry quickly with receivers and that ability is crucial when you’re expected to come off of the bench and keep the offense from missing a beat. Smith’s ability to make plays with his legs will add a dimension to most offenses.  It’s fair to ask why I would rank Brett Smith ahead of Tom Savage if I consider Smith to be a career backup. The reason is that I feel Savage has a lower floor than Smith.  Savage may end up starting at some point but more than likely he’ll end up as a backup.

Draft Projection: 7^th Round - Undrafted

I’ll be back tomorrow with QB #8.

And thanks again to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for the work you do compiling prospect video.

Quarterback Countdown- #10 Tom Savage

Over the next two months I plan on ranking the top players at every position and I’ll back it up with as much video evidence as possible. And since QB is the most high profile position I thought I would get it out of the way first. So over the next 10 days I will be doing a countdown of who I consider to be the top 10 QBs in this draft class. But before I get to QB #10 (Tom Savage) I wanted to acknowledge the guys who fell just short of the top 10.

11. AJ McCarron- Alabama

12. Logan Thomas- Virginia Tech

13. Keith Wenning- Ball St.

14. Bryn Renner- North Carolina

15. Tajh Boyd- Clemson

Tom Savage began his college career at Rutgers where he played in 10 games as a freshman and threw for 14 TDs, 7 INTs and a completion percentage of 52.3%. Savage was inured as a sophomore and failed to earn his starting job back once he was healthy. After falling out of favor during his sophomore season Savage transferred to the University of Arizona. Arizona’s offensive scheme ended up being a bad fit so he transferred again, this time to the University of Pittsburgh. By rule, Savage was forced to sit out his junior season after transferring. As a senior Savage started 13 games and led the Panthers to a 7-6 record with 21TDs, 9 INTs with a completion percentage of 61.2% and a whopping 43 sacks. Savage finished his career with 5,690 yards, 37 TDs and 19 INTs with a 56.8% completion percentage and 92 sacks.

Savage’s stats are definitely not impressive when compared to the other top QB prospects in this class. Maybe his numbers would've been better if he had spent more time with the same coaches and receivers but it is what it is. The table below is filled with several metrics for the QBs that I consider to be the top 10 in this draft class. There are a few stats about Savage that really stick out to me. The first is that among my top 10 QBs he has the lowest TD/INT ratio. The second is that he had the lowest completion percentage paired with the second lowest yards per completion average. I could understand if he was sacrificing completion percentage for longer completions (Like Zach Mettenbereger) but a low completion percentage shouldn't be coupled with a low yards per completion percentage. The final stat that sticks out to me is that Savage took 43 sacks as a senior. It’s totally fine to wonder whether the offensive line is to blame but with nearly twice as many sacks as any other QB in my top ten you have to think he could have done more to get the ball out of his hands. All in all the numbers don’t look too great.

Top 10 QBs 2013
	COMP	ATT	Comp %	YDS	YDS/CMP	TD	INT	TD/INT	SCK
Teddy Bridgewater	303	427	71.0%	3970	13.1	31	4	7.75	23
Derek Carr	453	659	68.7%	5082	11.2	50	8	6.25	11
Jimmy Garoppolo	375	568	66.0%	5050	13.5	53	9	5.89	19
Aaron Murray	225	347	64.8%	3075	13.7	26	9	2.89	13
Johny Manziel	300	429	69.9%	4114	13.7	37	13	2.85	19
Blake Bortles	259	382	67.8%	3581	13.8	25	9	2.78	21
Zach Mettenbereger	192	296	64.9%	3082	16.1	22	8	2.75	21
Brett Smith	293	467	62.7%	3375	11.5	29	11	2.64	25
David Fales	312	487	64.1%	4189	13.4	33	13	2.54	19
Tom Savage	238	389	61.2%	2958	12.4	21	9	2.33	43
Average	227	342	66.3%	2960	13.0	25.2	7.2	3.52	16.5

Strengths:

After examining Savage’s stats compared to the other top QBs in this draft class it would be perfectly reasonable to wonder why I would have him ranked in the top 10. And in this case there are two very clear answers.

Size- Savage measured in at 6’4” and 228LBs at the scouting combine. His size combined with his strong arm make him hard to ignore. Although guys like Russell Wilson and Drew Brees have shown that small stature can be overcome at the QB position it’s still something that scouts seem to covet at the position.

Arm Strength- The reason teams are overlooking Savage’s lack of production is his arm strength. It’s impossible to miss it. The ball jumps off of his hands. He has the zip to throw the deep outs, comebacks, posts, and seam routes that are essential in most NFL schemes and that’s not something that you can say for all of the top prospects in this class. In the video below you can see Savage make most of the throws that I just mentioned.

Weaknesses:

Pocket Presence- Outside of his accuracy issues my biggest concern with Savage is that he has poor pocket presence. He’s made a habit of getting to the top of his drop and just sitting there. The guys who make it in the NFL understand the importance of climbing the pocket. Sitting at the top of the pocket is bad for a few reasons. First of all when QBs get their momentum moving forward makes it easier to shift their weight forward and make a strong throws. The second reason is that every yard, foot and inch closer to the line of scrimmage the QB is when he releases the ball reduces the distance that the ball has to travel. And when playing against NFL defensive backs that like to jump routes, QBs need to shorten that distance whenever possible. The final reason and probably the most important is that lineman expect their QB to step up into the pocket. The lineman don’t have the luxury of being able to glance back and check to see where their QB is. Tackles are taught to block inside out so when a QB sits at the top of the pocket and the tackles on either side expect him to step up, they may end up pushing a defensive end our outside linebacker right into him. This is exactly what happens on the first play in the video below. Savage makes his drop and sits at the top of the pocket instead of stepping up. The right tackle probably got blamed for the sack but the defensive end would have just gone flying by if Savage would've just stepped up into the pocket. The rest of the plays are more examples of Savage doing the exact same thing but with less dramatic results. I only highlighted a few plays but I would say that he fails to climb the pocket about 65-70% of the time.

Deep Ball accuracy- It’s obvious that accuracy as a whole is an issue for Savage but his struggles with connecting on deep passes is especially noticeable. It’s not just that he misses it’s that he misses different ways every time. One play it’s a bad overthrow and the next play the ball is woefully under-thrown. The video below shows the deep ball miscues from three different games.

Stares Down Receivers- A skill that QBs in the NFL have to develop is the ability to use their eyes to look off coverage. Savage has a tendency to stare down his receivers. It doesn't matter how strong of an arm you have if the defense knows where the ball is going before it’s released. The video below shows two examples of Savage staring down his receiver from the beginning of the play allowing the safety to get a jump on the route and make a play on the ball.  

What to Expect:

 Tom Savage has the size and arm strength to succeed as an NFL QB. He has experience taking snaps from under center which is becoming increasingly rare. He needs some coaching on pocket presence, using his eyes to control the defense and there are a few things about his footwork and setup that definitely need work. But given a couple years to learn a system and get the coaching he needs I could see Savage as a starter in the league or at least a solid backup. At this point there is no way that I would draft him if I was looking for a QB to start right away. That being said, I think as the draft gets closer teams will become more and more intrigued with his blend of size and arm strength and he will ultimately end up being drafted earlier than he should be (probably the third or fourth round).

That’s all for today. Tomorrow I’ll be back with QB #9.

A big thanks to the guys at draftbreakdown.com for all the work you guys do compiling prospect video.