This year’s tackle class is very thin. There is a lack of
top tier talent and not much depth either. By my count, there are 5 prospects
that have a chance to be successful starting tackles in the NFL. Once those 5
players are off the board, there are a few long term developmental prospects
but not much else. Before I talk about those players, I want to talk quickly about how I evaluate offensive line prospects.
When I grade an offensive lineman I consider three things:
1)
Block Success Rate
2)
Technique and habits
3)
Physical measurements
Block Success Rate
Block success rate is very simple. I categorize every snap as a run or pass. Pass plays are categorized as speed rush, power rush, counter
rush and blitz/stunt. Run plays are categorized as Gap, Zone or Pull. Each play
is graded as a success or failure and the Block Success rate is determined. For
our purposes, I’ll highlight each prospect’s total Block Success Rate as well
as run Block Success Rate and pass Block Success Rate.
Techniques and
Habits
I try my best to point out habits and techniques that
benefit or harm a player’s efforts. I’ll be the first to say that I’m no
expert, I’m simply looking for behaviors that are repeated and have an effect
on the outcome of a play. I think it’s also important to try and determine
whether a habit or technique, especially if negative, can be changed. For
example, a lineman who holds his hands low, could theoretically be coached to
carry his hands higher. However, a 6’7”
tackle who plays with high pad level would have a harder time correcting
this habit due to his body type. Making a distinction between these types of
habits is important when discussing “upside”. As some things can improve with
coaching, but some habits or techniques will never change.
Physical
Measurements
I will be referencing the measurements of the tackles
drafted from 2010 – 2016. These measurements can provide a backdrop that helps
us understand if the prospect possesses the minimum physical tools required to
succeed in the NFL. Arm length is a measurement that I think goes a long way
towards determining the range of possible outcomes for a tackle’s career.
By using this three-pronged approach to evaluating lineman,
I believe we can develop realistic expectations for the range of outcomes for
these players at the next level. With that, let’s talk about this year’s top
tackle prospects. Note that I am evaluating Forrest Lamp, Dion Dawkins and
Taylor Moton as guards so they will not be included here.
1)
Garett Bolles – LT Utah #72
Block Success Rate
Total
|
Run
|
Pass
|
|
Garett Bolles
|
88.0%
|
85.7%
|
90.9%
|
Class Average
|
75.0%
|
73.4%
|
76.4%
|
Rank in Class
|
1 of 18
|
3 of 18
|
1 of 18
|
Measurements
Height
|
Weight
|
Arm
Length
|
|
Garett Bolles
|
77.0”
|
297.0 LBS
|
34.00”
|
2010 – 2016 Average
|
77.5”
|
314.5 LBS
|
34.30”
|
Strengths
1)
Elite
Zone Blocker - Bolles is a
tremendous athlete who uses that ability to get to the 2nd level and
cover up unprepared linebackers. He also has a great first step and covers
ground quickly on reach blocks. Bolles will give an instant boost to any team
with a zone based run game.
2)
Shows
good power on gap plays – Bolles does a good job driving his defender off
the line of scrimmage when asked to do so. He stays low, drives his legs, and
finishes blocks with a bit of a mean streak.
3)
Patient
and balanced pass protector - Bolles’ athleticism shows up in pass protection
as well, using his quickness to stay in front of lighter, more explosive
defenders. Bolles never panics or seems overwhelmed, even against counter moves
which seem to give fits to other tackle prospects in this class.
Weaknesses/Concerns
1)
Age –
Bolles will be 25 years old during his rookie campaign. This may hurt his
ability to land a large 2nd contract.
2)
Weight – Bolles
weighed in at 297 lbs at the scouting combine. The average for tackles drafted
over the last 6 years is 314.5 lbs.
Outlook
Bolles’ blend of athleticism and power make him a fit for
both zone and gap schemes. His quick feet and balance should make NFL teams
confident that he can handle the twitched-up edge rushers at the next level.
Teams would love it if Bolles were a couple of years younger, but I’m supremely
confident that whoever drafts him will be picking up his 5th year
option without much thought needed.
Draft Grade
Top 15 Pick
Best Fit
LT in a zone scheme.
2) Roderick
Johnson – LT Florida State #77
Block Success Rate
Total
|
Run
|
Pass
|
|
Roderick Johnson
|
81.6%
|
80.9%
|
82.4%
|
Class Average
|
75.0%
|
73.4%
|
76.4%
|
Rank in Class
|
4 of 18
|
6 of 18
|
4 of 18
|
Measurements
Height
|
Weight
|
Arm
Length
|
|
Roderick Johnson
|
79.0”
|
298.0 LBS
|
36.00”
|
2010 – 2016 Average
|
77.5”
|
314.5 LBS
|
34.30”
|
Strengths
1)
Uses
length well in pass protection - Only 3 tackles drafted since 2010 have longer
arms than Roderick Johnson. Johnson’s rare arm length allows him to keep pass
rushers away from his body and push speed rushers past the pocket.
2)
Good zone
blocker and puller – Johnson moves surprisingly well for being so tall. He
looks very comfortable in space, rarely missing blocks on quicker linebackers
at the second level. Johnson has also shown the ability to reach block
consistently.
Weaknesses/Concerns
1)
Struggles
vs counter moves – Johnson over commits to the outside rush at times. This
leaves him open to inside counter moves.
2)
Pad level
in run game – Johnson’s pad level is simply too high at times on running
plays. Defenders are able to get lower and over power him on gap plays.
Outlook
Roderick Johnson has the most upside of any tackle prospect
in this class and is one of the most underrated players in this draft
regardless of postion. His length and athleticism, combined with the fact that
he still has plenty of room to add some weight, should really excite teams. He
can play left tackle in the NFL and has the potential to be the cornerstone of
an offensive line. The key for Johnson will be adding some weight and being a
little more patient against speed rushers.
Draft Grade
Late 1st – Early 2nd round pick (28 –
42)
Johnson likely won’t be drafted until the late 2nd
round at the earliest. But maybe a team that sees his upside will take a shot
on him in the early 2nd round.
Best Fit
LT in a zone scheme.
3)
Ryan
Ramczyk – LT Wisconsin #65
Block Success Rate
Total
|
Run
|
Pass
|
|
Ryan Ramczyk
|
86.4%
|
88.2%
|
83.9%
|
Class Average (Tackle)
|
75.0%
|
73.4%
|
76.4%
|
Rank in Class (Tackle)
|
2 of 18
|
2 of 18
|
3 of 18
|
Measurements
Height
|
Weight
|
Arm
Length
|
|
Ryan Ramczyk
|
78.0”
|
310.0 LBS
|
33.75”
|
2010 – 2016 Average
|
77.5”
|
314.5 LBS
|
34.30”
|
Strengths
1)
Powerful
run blocker - Ramczyk has a powerful lower body. His legs never stop
driving. He also does a good job of turning defenders to seal up holes.
2)
Great
pocket awareness and patience – Ramczyk shows a consistent understanding of
where the QB is in the pocket and where the pass rusher is trying to get to. He
is rarely out of position.
3)
Stout vs
power pass rush – Ramczyk is equipped to absorb the bull rush. He drops his
weight in anticipation, making it difficult for the pass rusher to uproot him
Weaknesses/Concerns
1)
Can’t
handle counter moves – Ramczyk, like several other tackles in this class,
struggles mightily against a good counter move. Ramczyk looked helpless against
Taco Charlton this year. Charlton beat him repeatedly with the same spin move
and Ramczyk was unable to adjust.
2)
Not very
athletic – Ramczyk lacks the agility to be consistently successful as a
zone blocker. He is much better in congested areas than in space.
Outlook
Ryan Ramczyk is a powerful run blocker who can hold his own
against most pass rushers. The big question is whether he will be athletic
enough to handle NFL pass rushers. Taco Charlton, who is a mediocre athlete by
NFL pass rushing standards, destroyed Ramczyk this year.
Draft Grade
Early 2nd round pick (33 – 42)
Ramczyk will almost certainly be picked in the 1st
round. But the team that selects him may be disappointed when he struggles
against top tier pass rushers. Ramczyk is a prime candidate to be overdrafted.
Best Fit
RT in a gap scheme.
4)
Cam
Robinson – LT Alabama #74
Block Success Rate
Total
|
Run
|
Pass
|
|
Cam Robinson
|
78.2%
|
69.8%
|
88.6%
|
Class Average (Tackle)
|
75.0%
|
73.4%
|
76.4%
|
Rank in Class (Tackle)
|
7 of 18
|
12 of 18
|
2 of 18
|
Measurements
Height
|
Weight
|
Arm
Length
|
|
Cam Robinson
|
78.0”
|
322.0 LBS
|
35.50”
|
2010 – 2016 Average
|
77.5”
|
314.5 LBS
|
34.30”
|
Strengths
1)
Stout
pass protector – Robinson plays very heavy in pass protection. Pass rushers
who attack him straight on rarely succeed.
2)
Patient
pass protector – Robinson does a great job of allowing speed rushers to get
upfield before pushing them past the pocket. His length makes it difficult for
rushers to turn the corner on him.
Weaknesses/Concerns
1)
Poor run
blocker – Robinson looks out of place when asked to pull or execute zone
blocks. His first step is also slow at times, allowing defenders to penetrate
and disrupt both gap and zone running plays. Robinson is a liability as a run
blocker, which runs counter to what many people assume due to his size.
Outlook
Robinson is a good pass protector with the size and length
to handle NFL pass rushers. He’s a much better fit for a run scheme that favors
gap plays over zone.
Draft Grade
Mid 2nd round pick (43 – 52)
Like Ramczyk, Robinson will almost certainly be drafted in
the 1st round. But his lack of ability as a run blocker will show at
the next level. The team that takes him should be very pass heavy. The Packers
and Giants would make a lot of sense.
Best Fit
LT in a gap scheme.
5)
Conor
McDermott – LT UCLA #68
Block Success Rate
Total
|
Run
|
Pass
|
|
Conor McDermott
|
81.0%
|
81.5%
|
80.8%
|
Class Average (Tackle)
|
75.0%
|
73.4%
|
76.4%
|
Rank in Class (Tackle)
|
5 of 18
|
5 of 18
|
7 of 18
|
Measurements
Height
|
Weight
|
Arm
Length
|
|
Conor McDermott
|
80.0”
|
307.0 LBS
|
34.75”
|
2010 – 2016 Average
|
77.5”
|
314.5 LBS
|
34.30”
|
Strengths
1)
Uses
length well in pass protection – McDermott uses his length well to slow
down pass rushers. His height allows him to attack defenders from angles that
they are not used to.
2)
Power in
run game – McDermott keeps his arms low and waits until the last possible
moment to extend his arms and knock his defender backwards. His pad level will
never be great, but McDermott has found a way to move defenders off the line.
Weaknesses/Concerns
1)
Struggles
vs counter moves – McDermott doesn’t have the athleticism to recover
against counter moves.
Outlook
No single facet of McDermott’s game is elite, but he is well
rounded enough that he could succeed in the NFL. He won’t be a star but he
should stick around as the second best tackle on a team for years.
Draft Grade
Mid 2nd round pick (43 – 52)
Best Fit
RT in a gap scheme.
The remaining prospects are developmental, and I would give
all grades of 4th round or later.
6)
Andreas Knappe – RT Connecticut
7)
Antonio Garcia – LT Troy
8)
Sam Tevi – RT Utah
9)
Jon Heck – LT North Carolina
10)
Steven Moore – Cal
11)
Adam Bisnowaty – LT Pittsburgh
Below are what I feel are the key takeaways from the evaluation that I have done on this class of tackles:
1)
Roderick Johnson is very underrated and has the
potential to be a star
2)
Garett Bolles will make an immediate positive
impact on the team that selects him
3)
Ryan Ramczyk is slightly overrated
4)
Adam Bisnowaty is the most overrated tackle
prospect in this class
Those are my thoughts on this year’s class of Tackles. I
hope to finish the same evaluation for Guards and Centers before the draft if
time allows. If you’ve read this far, please give me a follow @ncaa2nflscout. You
can also see my complete Block Success Rate table below.
Players highlighted in blue, did not play the minimum number
of snaps to qualify.
Block
Success Rate
|
|||
Name
|
Total
|
Run
|
Pass
|
Garett Bolles
|
88.0%
|
85.7%
|
90.9%
|
Ryan Ramczyk
|
86.4%
|
88.2%
|
83.9%
|
Forrest Lamp
|
83.6%
|
88.2%
|
81.6%
|
Roderick Johnson
|
81.6%
|
80.9%
|
82.4%
|
Conor McDermott
|
81.0%
|
81.5%
|
80.8%
|
Dion Dawkins
|
80.9%
|
83.3%
|
78.9%
|
Cam Robinson
|
78.2%
|
69.8%
|
88.6%
|
Andreas Knappe
|
77.4%
|
79.2%
|
75.9%
|
Sam Tevi
|
76.2%
|
75.8%
|
76.7%
|
Steven Moore
|
75.5%
|
70.8%
|
80.0%
|
Taylor Moton
|
74.3%
|
61.5%
|
81.8%
|
Aviante Collins
|
73.2%
|
70.0%
|
74.2%
|
Dan Skipper
|
72.2%
|
68.2%
|
75.5%
|
Jon Heck
|
71.4%
|
55.6%
|
76.9%
|
Storm Norton
|
70.8%
|
66.7%
|
73.3%
|
Chad Wheeler
|
70.5%
|
74.1%
|
67.6%
|
Antonio Garcia
|
70.0%
|
63.6%
|
72.4%
|
Avery Gennesy
|
68.6%
|
41.2%
|
94.4%
|
Vivtor Salko
|
66.7%
|
84.6%
|
52.9%
|
Justin Senior
|
65.8%
|
63.6%
|
66.7%
|
Zach Banner
|
64.3%
|
63.3%
|
65.4%
|
Adam Bisnowaty
|
59.7%
|
53.6%
|
64.7%
|
Erik Magnuson
|
58.7%
|
53.8%
|
65.0%
|
Robert Leff
|
56.0%
|
61.1%
|
42.9%
|
David Sharpe
|
54.2%
|
50.0%
|
56.3%
|
Thanks for reading!
